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Noroeste vs Capivariano Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Estadio Alfredo de Castilho, Bauru
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Match Events

6'
Sub
Leo Sena In: Denner
Out: Leo Sena
32'
Bruno Silva
36'
Denner

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Paulista matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Noroeste
20%
Draws
34%
Capivariano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Noroeste

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Capivariano lately — more wins on the board than Noroeste.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Noroeste taking it.
  • Regular Paulista form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Noroeste Clean Sheet 68%
Capivariano Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Noroeste Capivariano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 15
Draws 14 6
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.3 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.2 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Paulista
Noroeste vs Capivariano
1:1
Jan 21, 2024 Paulista A2
Noroeste vs Capivariano
2:2
Apr 23, 2022 Paulista A3
Noroeste vs Capivariano
2:0
Apr 2, 2022 Paulista A3
Capivariano vs Noroeste
2:0
Mar 26, 2022 Paulista A3
Noroeste vs Capivariano
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Noroeste Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Capivariano Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Moraes
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Noroeste 95 / 100
Capivariano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Noroeste Capivariano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Noroeste Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Noroeste found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Noroeste remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Capivariano registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Noroeste VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Noroeste

(Home)
03 Oct
Sao Jose EC
1 : 0
Noroeste
27 Sept
Noroeste
1 : 1
Sao Jose EC
19 Sept
Noroeste
1 : 0
Primavera EC
12 Sept
Primavera EC
2 : 2
Noroeste
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
Page 1 of 6

Capivariano

(Away)
21 Feb
Palmeiras
4 : 0
Capivariano
15 Feb
Botafogo SP
0 : 1
Capivariano
08 Feb
Capivariano
1 : 0
Mirassol
05 Feb
Corinthians
3 : 0
Capivariano
25 Jan
Capivariano
1 : 2
Primavera EC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Novorizontino 8 5 1 2 16:10 16
2 Palmeiras 8 5 1 2 8:7 16
3 Bragantino 8 4 4 0 14:2 16
4 Portuguesa 8 5 0 3 11:7 15
5 Corinthians 8 4 2 2 10:6 14
6 Sao Paulo 8 4 1 3 11:12 13
7 Capivariano 8 4 1 3 7:10 13
8 Santos 8 3 3 2 12:7 12
9 Guarani 8 3 3 2 6:7 12
10 Botafogo SP 8 3 2 3 5:9 11
11 Mirassol 8 2 2 4 10:8 8
12 Primavera EC 8 2 2 4 14:15 8
13 Sao Bernardo 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
14 Noroeste 8 1 5 2 11:11 8
15 Velo Clube 8 1 2 5 2:13 5
16 Ponte Preta 8 0 1 7 3:14 1
Promotion - Paulista (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A2 2027 (Main)