Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Noroeste vs Capivariano

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Estadio Alfredo de Castilho, Bauru
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Sub
Leo Sena In: Denner
Out: Leo Sena
32'
Bruno Silva
36'
Denner

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Paulista matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Noroeste
28%
Draws
22%
Capivariano
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Noroeste

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Capivariano lately — more wins on the board than Noroeste.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Noroeste taking it.
  • Regular Paulista form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Noroeste Clean Sheet 68%
Capivariano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Noroeste Capivariano
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 15
Draws 11 6
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.38 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Paulista
Noroeste vs Capivariano
1:1
Jan 21, 2024 Paulista A2
Noroeste vs Capivariano
2:2
Apr 23, 2022 Paulista A3
Noroeste vs Capivariano
2:0
Apr 2, 2022 Paulista A3
Capivariano vs Noroeste
2:0
Mar 26, 2022 Paulista A3
Noroeste vs Capivariano
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Noroeste Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Capivariano Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Moraes
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.37

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Noroeste 59 / 100
Capivariano 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Noroeste Capivariano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Noroeste found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Noroeste remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Capivariano registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Noroeste VS Capivariano
1.38 Goals Scored 0.67
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.33
63% Over 1.5 33%
50% Over 2.5 33%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Noroeste

(Home)
25 Jul
Noroeste
2 : 2
Uniao Sao Joao
18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0
Noroeste
28 Jun
Noroeste
1 : 3
Portuguesa RJ
21 Jun
Portuguesa RJ
1 : 1
Noroeste
07 Jun
Noroeste
1 : 0
Sampaio Correa FE
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Capivariano

(Away)
21 Feb
Palmeiras
4 : 0
Capivariano
15 Feb
Botafogo SP
0 : 1
Capivariano
08 Feb
Capivariano
1 : 0
Mirassol
05 Feb
Corinthians
3 : 0
Capivariano
25 Jan
Capivariano
1 : 2
Primavera EC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Novorizontino851216:1016
2Palmeiras85128:716
3Bragantino844014:216
4Portuguesa850311:715
5Corinthians842210:614
6Sao Paulo841311:1213
7Capivariano84137:1013
8Santos833212:712
9Guarani83326:712
10Botafogo SP83235:911
11Mirassol822410:88
12Primavera EC822414:158
13Sao Bernardo82248:108
14Noroeste815211:118
15Velo Clube81252:135
16Ponte Preta80173:141
Promotion - Paulista (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A2 2027 (Main)