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Noroeste vs Velo Clube

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Estadio Alfredo de Castilho, Bauru
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Ronaldo Alves
Assist: Mathias de Almeida D. M.
37'
Rodrigo Alves
46'
Sub
Mancha In: Jhoninha
Out: Mancha

AI Match Summary

The Paulista game between Noroeste and Velo Clube finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Noroeste.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Noroeste
35%
Draws
41%
Velo Clube
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Velo Clube

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Velo Clube have managed 0.93 goals a game lately — Noroeste are scoring more at 1.28.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Noroeste Clean Sheet 20%
Velo Clube Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Noroeste Velo Clube
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 12 10
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.28 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Serie D
Noroeste vs Velo Clube
3:0
Apr 25, 2026 Serie D
Velo Clube vs Noroeste
1:0
Feb 1, 2026 Paulista
Noroeste vs Velo Clube
2:0
Jan 15, 2025 Paulista
Velo Clube vs Noroeste
0:2
Apr 13, 2024 Paulista A2
Velo Clube vs Noroeste
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Noroeste Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronaldo Alves
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carlao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Velo Clube Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Noroeste 32 / 100
Velo Clube 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Noroeste Velo Clube

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Noroeste scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Velo Clube has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Noroeste remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Noroeste VS Velo Clube
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Noroeste

(Home)
19 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1
Noroeste
09 Aug
Noroeste
2 : 1
Piracicaba
01 Aug
Piracicaba
1 : 1
Noroeste
25 Jul
Noroeste
2 : 2
Uniao Sao Joao
18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0
Noroeste
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Velo Clube

(Away)
12 Jul
Sao Luiz
3 : 1
Velo Clube
04 Jul
Velo Clube
2 : 1
Sao Luiz
27 Jun
Agua Santa
1 : 2
Velo Clube
20 Jun
Velo Clube
0 : 0
Agua Santa
07 Jun
Velo Clube
3 : 1
Marica
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Novorizontino 8 5 1 2 16:10 16
2 Palmeiras 8 5 1 2 8:7 16
3 Bragantino 8 4 4 0 14:2 16
4 Portuguesa 8 5 0 3 11:7 15
5 Corinthians 8 4 2 2 10:6 14
6 Sao Paulo 8 4 1 3 11:12 13
7 Capivariano 8 4 1 3 7:10 13
8 Santos 8 3 3 2 12:7 12
9 Guarani 8 3 3 2 6:7 12
10 Botafogo SP 8 3 2 3 5:9 11
11 Mirassol 8 2 2 4 10:8 8
12 Primavera EC 8 2 2 4 14:15 8
13 Sao Bernardo 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
14 Noroeste 8 1 5 2 11:11 8
15 Velo Clube 8 1 2 5 2:13 5
16 Ponte Preta 8 0 1 7 3:14 1
Promotion - Paulista (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A2 2027 (Main)