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North Carolina FC vs Charlotte Independence

USA USA

USL Cup 2025 WakeMed Soccer Park
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Chaney C.
Assist: Ciss O.
25' Event
Alvarez L.
(Penalty)
27' Event
Anderson O.
Assist: Maldonado M.

AI Match Summary

Charlotte Independence in this USL Cup 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Charlotte Independence.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
North Carolina FC
17%
Draws
70%
Charlotte Independence
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Charlotte Independence

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Charlotte Independence lately — more wins on the board than North Carolina FC.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Charlotte Independence taking it.
  • Cup games in USL Cup 2025 usually bring a different intensity than the league.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
North Carolina FC Clean Sheet 16%
Charlotte Independence Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric North Carolina FC Charlotte Independence
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 18
Draws 4 3
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 0 1.88
Goals Conceded 0 2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2025 USL Cup
North Carolina FC vs Charlotte Independence
1:2
Apr 15, 2025 US Open Cup
Charlotte Independence vs North Carolina FC
1:3
Nov 5, 2023 USL League One
North Carolina FC vs Charlotte Independence
2:1
Jun 30, 2023 USL League One
North Carolina FC vs Charlotte Independence
2:0
May 21, 2023 USL League One
Charlotte Independence vs North Carolina FC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

North Carolina FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Anderson O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Charlotte Independence Compare

Top Goalscorer Chaney C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Carolina FC 15 / 100
Charlotte Independence 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
North Carolina FC Charlotte Independence

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

North Carolina FC scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Charlotte Independence let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

North Carolina FC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Charlotte Independence
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 2
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sacramento Republic43016:19
2Las Vegas Lights43017:69
3Monterey Bay42026:66
4Orange County SC42025:66
5AV Alta FC42026:65
6Oakland Roots41035:74
7Spokane Velocity41032:53
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1San Antonio FC43016:310
2New Mexico430111:88
3Phoenix Rising430112:107
4Colorado Springs42027:57
5El Paso Locomotive42024:46
6Union Omaha41033:53
7Texoma FC40045:131
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Indy Eleven44009:211
2Birmingham Legion43018:510
3Chattanooga Red Wolves42025:85
4FC Tulsa41038:84
5Forward Madison41033:84
6One Knoxville41033:52
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rhode Island430111:510
2Hartford Athletic430110:79
3Detroit City43019:68
4Portland Hearts of Pine42028:105
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds41033:54
6Westchester SC40043:110
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Charlotte Independence43019:59
2Louisville City43018:49
3Loudoun United43016:49
4North Carolina FC42024:45
5Lexington41036:64
6Richmond Kickers40041:110
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Greenville Triumph43016:39
2Tampa Bay42028:77
3South Georgia Tormenta42028:87
4Charleston42026:65
5Miami FC42028:95
6FC Naples41034:73