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North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Srbija

Australia Australia

Victoria Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Hindle J.
53' Event
Banovac A.
71' Event
Brimmer S.

AI Match Summary

North Geelong Warriors in this Victoria Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored North Geelong Warriors.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
North Geelong Warriors
39%
Draws
30%
Melbourne Srbija
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • North Geelong Warriors haven't matched Melbourne Srbija's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
North Geelong Warriors Clean Sheet 12%
Melbourne Srbija Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric North Geelong Warriors Melbourne Srbija
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 14
Draws 4 4
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.88 1.5
Goals Conceded 2 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Victoria Premier League
North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Srbija
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

North Geelong Warriors Compare

Top Goalscorer Banovac A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brimmer S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Melbourne Srbija Compare

Top Goalscorer Hindle J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Geelong Warriors 30 / 100
Melbourne Srbija 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
North Geelong Warriors Melbourne Srbija

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

North Geelong Warriors's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Melbourne Srbija's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: North Geelong Warriors stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

North Geelong Warriors VS Melbourne Srbija
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

North Geelong Warriors

(Home)
18 Jul
North Geelong Warriors
0 : 2
Melbourne Victory U21
11 Jul
Eltham Redbacks
3 : 1
North Geelong Warriors
04 Jul
North Geelong Warriors
1 : 1
Port Melbourne Sharks
20 Jun
Manningham United Blues
2 : 3
North Geelong Warriors
13 Jun
North Geelong Warriors
2 : 1
Northcote City
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Melbourne Srbija

(Away)
18 Jul
Melbourne Srbija
0 : 1
Port Melbourne Sharks
11 Jul
Melbourne Srbija
0 : 1
Manningham United Blues
03 Jul
Northcote City
2 : 3
Melbourne Srbija
20 Jun
Melbourne Srbija
2 : 0
Melbourne Knights
13 Jun
North Sunshine Eagles
1 : 2
Melbourne Srbija
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Melbourne Knights21142537:1644
2Brunswick Juventus21140741:3042
3Northcote City21124537:2340
4Melbourne Victory U2121104750:3534
5Bulleen2196637:2933
6Eltham Redbacks2195749:3632
7Manningham United Blues2193937:4130
8Melbourne Srbija2092924:2329
9North Geelong Warriors20911033:3928
10Western United U2121811244:5425
11Brunswick City21731136:4424
12Langwarrin21651036:4623
13North Sunshine Eagles21541229:3719
14Port Melbourne Sharks21341411:4813
Promotion - NPL Victoria (Main)
Promotion - Victoria Premier League (Promotion - Play Offs)