Sport Picks
North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
MLS Next Pro Choctaw Stadium, Arlington, TX 
Match Events
43'
43'
Goncalves L.
50'
50'
Gnaulati X.
Assist: Gaffney C.
57'
57'
Robles D.
AI Match Summary
The MLS Next Pro game between North Texas and Tacoma Defiance finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward North Texas.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: North Texas
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Tacoma Defiance have managed 1.66 goals a game lately — North Texas are scoring more at 1.68.
- North Texas are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- Regular MLS Next Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 87%).
- North Texas have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 87%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
North Texas Clean Sheet 10%
Tacoma Defiance Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | North Texas | Tacoma Defiance |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 15 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 16 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.68 | 1.66 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.71 | 1.62 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 9, 2026 MLS Next Pro
North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance
3:1
May 26, 2025 MLS Next Pro
Tacoma Defiance vs North Texas
2:3
Oct 27, 2024 MLS Next Pro
North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance
4:1
Apr 15, 2024 MLS Next Pro
North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance
2:1
Aug 20, 2023 MLS Next Pro
North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
North Texas Compare
Top Goalscorer Starnes S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Baran D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Tacoma Defiance Compare
Top Goalscorer Gnaulati X.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
North Texas 56 / 100
Tacoma Defiance 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
North Texas Tacoma Defiance
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick North Texas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.
North Texas found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).
Tacoma Defiance's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.
North Texas went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
North Texas VS Tacoma Defiance
1.88 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
North Texas
(Home) 20 Sept
Colorado Rapids 2
2 : 1 North Texas
14 Sept
North Texas
1 : 0 Houston Dynamo 2
10 Sept
North Texas
2 : 3 Houston Dynamo 2
05 Sept
North Texas
4 : 1 Real Monarchs
29 Aug
St. Louis City 2
1 : 2 North Texas
Page 1 of 7
14 Sept
North Texas
1 : 0 Houston Dynamo 2
10 Sept
North Texas
2 : 3 Houston Dynamo 2
05 Sept
North Texas
4 : 1 Real Monarchs
23 Aug
North Texas
2 : 1 Minnesota United 2
20 Aug
North Texas
1 : 0 Austin FC II
Page 1 of 3
Tacoma Defiance
(Away) 20 Sept
Tacoma Defiance
2 : 1 Portland Timbers 2
14 Sept
Ventura County
3 : 0 Tacoma Defiance
06 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 2 Tacoma Defiance
31 Aug
Real Monarchs
3 : 0 Tacoma Defiance
25 Aug
Tacoma Defiance
4 : 0 Sporting Kansas City II
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Ventura County
3 : 0 Tacoma Defiance
06 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 2 Tacoma Defiance
31 Aug
Real Monarchs
3 : 0 Tacoma Defiance
17 Aug
Los Angeles FC 2
4 : 3 Tacoma Defiance
09 Aug
North Texas
3 : 1 Tacoma Defiance
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew 2 | 28 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 49:43 | 48 |
| 2 | New England Revolution II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47:42 | 48 |
| 3 | New York City II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 50:44 | 47 |
| 4 | CT United FC | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 59:52 | 46 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 58:48 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 37:40 | 43 |
| 7 | Toronto FC II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 48:56 | 39 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati 2 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 32:62 | 20 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 28 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 67:39 | 58 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 56:39 | 56 |
| 3 | Atlanta United 2 | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 62:46 | 48 |
| 4 | Huntsville City | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 49:47 | 44 |
| 5 | Orlando City B | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 55:56 | 44 |
| 6 | Chicago Fire II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 50:48 | 39 |
| 7 | Carolina Core | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 40:53 | 31 |
| 8 | Inter Miami II | 28 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 30:74 | 15 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portland Timbers 2 | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 37:29 | 57 |
| 2 | Ventura County | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 58:36 | 53 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 50:48 | 45 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 51:36 | 42 |
| 5 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 40:44 | 41 |
| 6 | Real Monarchs | 28 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 38:55 | 33 |
| 7 | Vancouver Whitecaps 2 | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 39:62 | 27 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 28 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 54:21 | 65 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo 2 | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 53:33 | 52 |
| 3 | Minnesota United 2 | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 43:39 | 45 |
| 4 | St. Louis City 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:40 | 44 |
| 5 | North Texas | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:41 | 40 |
| 6 | Sporting Kansas City II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 36:75 | 23 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids 2 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 28:52 | 21 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 28 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 67:39 | 58 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 56:39 | 56 |
| 3 | Atlanta United 2 | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 62:46 | 48 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew 2 | 28 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 49:43 | 48 |
| 5 | New England Revolution II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47:42 | 48 |
| 6 | New York City II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 50:44 | 47 |
| 7 | CT United FC | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 59:52 | 46 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 58:48 | 46 |
| 9 | Huntsville City | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 49:47 | 44 |
| 10 | Orlando City B | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 55:56 | 44 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 37:40 | 43 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 48:56 | 39 |
| 13 | Chicago Fire II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 50:48 | 39 |
| 14 | Carolina Core | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 40:53 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati 2 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 32:62 | 20 |
| 16 | Inter Miami II | 28 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 30:74 | 15 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 28 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 54:21 | 65 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers 2 | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 37:29 | 57 |
| 3 | Ventura County | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 58:36 | 53 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo 2 | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 53:33 | 52 |
| 5 | Minnesota United 2 | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 43:39 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 50:48 | 45 |
| 7 | St. Louis City 2 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:40 | 44 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 51:36 | 42 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 40:44 | 41 |
| 10 | North Texas | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:41 | 40 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 28 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 38:55 | 33 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps 2 | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 39:62 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 36:75 | 23 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids 2 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 28:52 | 21 |
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play-in)
