Sport Picks

Northampton vs Gillingham - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England

EFL Trophy Sixfields Stadium, Northampton

Gillingham

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the EFL Trophy. This one's hard to separate. Gillingham have shipped 1.66 goals a game lately, while Northampton have conceded 1.57 and scored 0.86. Past meetings favor Northampton slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 29, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.38, favoring Gillingham. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Northampton

20%

Draws

40%

Gillingham

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence

Gillingham have won more games recently than Northampton.
Win probability leans Northampton's way, sitting at 60%.
Gillingham arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Northampton, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Northampton Clean Sheet 17%

Gillingham Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Northampton	Gillingham
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	5	10
Draws	6	7
Losses	17	12
Goals Scored	0.86	1.34
Goals Conceded	1.57	1.66
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 League Two

Gillingham vs Northampton

1:1

Apr 10, 2023 League Two

Northampton vs Gillingham

2:1

Nov 12, 2022 League Two

Gillingham vs Northampton

0:2

Apr 24, 2021 League One

Gillingham vs Northampton

2:2

Dec 29, 2020 League One

Northampton vs Gillingham

3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Northampton 57 / 100

Gillingham 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Northampton Gillingham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Northampton Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gillingham's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Northampton went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Northampton scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Scoring Trends

Northampton VS Gillingham

0.75 Goals Scored 1.88

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75

63% Over 1.5 88%

13% Over 2.5 75%

0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Northampton

(Home)

24 Oct

Northampton

2 : 0

Colchester

20 Oct

Northampton

0 : 1

Tranmere

17 Oct

Grimsby

0 : 2

Northampton

10 Oct

York City

1 : 1

Northampton

06 Oct

Cambridge Utd

2 : 1

Northampton

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Gillingham

(Away)

24 Oct

Gillingham

1 : 4

Grimsby

20 Oct

Gillingham

1 : 1

Port Vale

17 Oct

Accrington

3 : 1

Gillingham

13 Oct

Gillingham

4 : 3

Brighton U21

10 Oct

Rotherham

1 : 4

Gillingham

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