Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Northampton vs Plymouth

England England

League One 2025/2026 Sixfields Stadium, Northampton
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
List E.
Assist: Jacobs M.
18' Event
Jacobs M.
Assist: Guinness-Walker N.
28' Event
Tolaj L.
Assist: Edwards J.

AI Match Summary

The League One 2025/2026 game between Northampton and Plymouth finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Plymouth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Northampton
6%
Draws
90%
Plymouth
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Plymouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Plymouth come out ahead of Northampton on wins alone.
  • Plymouth are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular League One 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Northampton Clean Sheet 10%
Plymouth Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Northampton Plymouth
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 4 19
Draws 5 4
Losses 20 5
Goals Scored 1 2.38
Goals Conceded 2.25 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 League One
Northampton vs Plymouth
2:3
Nov 29, 2025 League One
Plymouth vs Northampton
0:3
Mar 2, 2021 League One
Northampton vs Plymouth
2:0
Oct 17, 2020 League One
Plymouth vs Northampton
2:1
Apr 13, 2020 League Two
Plymouth vs Northampton
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Northampton Compare

Top Goalscorer List E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jacobs M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Plymouth Compare

Top Goalscorer Tolaj L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Boateng M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Northampton 10 / 100
Plymouth 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Northampton Plymouth

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PLY Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Plymouth's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Northampton stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Northampton scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Northampton VS Plymouth
1 Goals Scored 2.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Northampton

(Home)
28 Jul
Cambridge Utd
0 : 0
Northampton
22 Jul
Southend
1 : 3
Northampton
18 Jul
Northampton
0 : 0
Coventry
11 Jul
Leicester
3 : 0
Northampton
02 May
Northampton
2 : 3
Plymouth
Page 1 of 6

Plymouth

(Away)
25 Jul
Truro
0 : 1
Plymouth
21 Jul
Torquay
0 : 1
Plymouth
18 Jul
Bath City
0 : 3
Plymouth
11 Jul
Plymouth Parkway
1 : 4
Plymouth
02 May
Northampton
2 : 3
Plymouth
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lincoln City463110589:41103
2Cardiff462710990:5091
3Stockport County4622111371:5877
4Bradford City4622111358:5177
5Bolton461918970:5275
6Stevenage4621121349:4675
7Luton4621111468:5674
8Plymouth462271775:6373
9Huddersfield4618131574:6467
10Mansfield4616171362:5065
11Wycombe4617121769:5863
12Reading4616151564:6063
13Blackpool461792054:6560
14Doncaster461792050:6960
15Barnsley4615141768:7359
16Wigan4614141849:5856
17Burton4613151850:6054
18Peterborough461582364:6853
19AFC Wimbledon461582351:7253
20Leyton Orient4614102259:7152
21Exeter4612132152:6149
22Port Vale4610122436:6142
23Rotherham4610112541:7141
24Northampton46982939:7435
Promotion - Championship (Main)
Promotion - League One 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Main)