Sport Picks
Northampton vs Southampton
England
EFL Cup 2025/2026 Sixfields Stadium, Northampton 
Match Events
11'
11'
Edwards R.
46'
46'
Sub
List E. In: Wheatley E.
Out: List E.
46'
46'
Sub
McCarthy C. In: Burroughs J.
Out: McCarthy C.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-1, with Southampton advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
20%
52%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Southampton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Northampton haven't matched Southampton's recent run of results.
- Southampton are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Southampton arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Southampton, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Southampton have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Northampton Clean Sheet 16%
Southampton Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Northampton | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 5 | 21 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 18 | 1 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 2.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 0.82 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 12, 2025 EFL Cup
Northampton vs Southampton
0:1
Nov 28, 2009 FA Cup
Northampton vs Southampton
2:3
Aug 11, 2009 EFL Cup
Southampton vs Northampton
2:0
Jan 8, 2005 FA Cup
Northampton vs Southampton
1:3
Sep 22, 2004 EFL Cup
Northampton vs Southampton
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Northampton Compare
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Southampton Compare
Top Goalscorer Fernandes M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Northampton 28 / 100
Southampton 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Northampton Southampton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Southampton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Southampton let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Northampton went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Northampton's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Northampton VS Southampton
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Northampton
(Home) 08 Aug
Leicester
1 : 0 Northampton
01 Aug
Solihull Moors
2 : 4 Northampton
28 Jul
Cambridge Utd
0 : 0 Northampton
22 Jul
Southend
1 : 3 Northampton
18 Jul
Northampton
0 : 0 Coventry
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Northampton
0 : 0 Coventry
02 May
Northampton
2 : 3 Plymouth
28 Apr
Northampton
0 : 1 Barnsley
18 Apr
Northampton
1 : 3 Doncaster
06 Apr
Northampton
1 : 3 Wigan
Page 1 of 3
Southampton
(Away) 08 Aug
Colchester
0 : 2 Southampton
01 Aug
Preussen Munster
1 : 2 Southampton
24 Jul
Braunschweig
0 : 1 Southampton
18 Jul
Eastleigh
1 : 3 Southampton
12 May
Southampton
2 : 1 Middlesbrough
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
Colchester
0 : 2 Southampton
01 Aug
Preussen Munster
1 : 2 Southampton
24 Jul
Braunschweig
0 : 1 Southampton
18 Jul
Eastleigh
1 : 3 Southampton
09 May
Middlesbrough
0 : 0 Southampton
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
