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Northern Mariana Islands vs American Samoa

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Northern Mariana Islands in this Pacific Games tie, finishing 4-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Northern Mariana Islands
6%
Draws
4%
American Samoa
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Northern Mariana Islands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to American Samoa lately — more wins on the board than Northern Mariana Islands.
  • Northern Mariana Islands are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • American Samoa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Northern Mariana Islands, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 93%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 93%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Northern Mariana Islands Clean Sheet 10%
American Samoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Northern Mariana Islands American Samoa
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 3 4
Draws 2 2
Losses 22 24
Goals Scored 1.25 0.25
Goals Conceded 4 7.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 4.00 7.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 26, 2023 Pacific Games
Northern Mariana Islands vs American Samoa
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Northern Mariana Islands 83 / 100
American Samoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Northern Mariana Islands American Samoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

American Samoa let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

American Samoa lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Northern Mariana Islands scored in 56% of their last 27 games.

Scoring Trends

Northern Mariana Islands VS American Samoa
1.25 Goals Scored 0.25
4 Goals Conceded 7.63
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Northern Mariana Islands

(Home)
22 Dec
Northern Mariana Islands
0 : 8
Guam
21 Dec
Northern Mariana Islands
1 : 2
Guam
07 Apr
Northern Mariana Islands
2 : 1
Guam
06 Apr
Northern Mariana Islands
2 : 2
Guam
30 Nov
Northern Mariana Islands
1 : 4
Tuvalu
Page 1 of 6

American Samoa

(Away)
28 Mar
American Samoa
0 : 6
Guam
25 Mar
United States Virgin Islands
5 : 2
American Samoa
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
29 Nov
American Samoa
2 : 6
Tonga
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

9th place
Northern Mariana Islands1
Tuvalu4
American Samoa2
Tonga6
Semi-finals
Northern Mariana Islands4
American Samoa0
Tonga0
Tuvalu4