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Stadium Background

Norway vs Finland

World World

Friendly International 2025 Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Haaland E.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Odegaard M. In: Thorsby M.
Out: Odegaard M.
46'
Sub
Berge S. In: Berg P.
Out: Berge S.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between Norway and Finland finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Norway.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Norway
15%
Draws
34%
Finland
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Norway

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Finland haven't matched Norway's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Norway a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Norway here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Norway Clean Sheet 68%
Finland Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Norway Finland
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 19 8
Draws 4 2
Losses 5 18
Goals Scored 2.71 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.32
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2025 Friendly International
Norway vs Finland
1:0
Nov 20, 2022 Friendly International
Norway vs Finland
1:1
Mar 29, 2016 Friendly International
Norway vs Finland
2:0
Apr 1, 2009 Friendly International
Norway vs Finland
3:2
May 22, 2003 Friendly International
Norway vs Finland
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Norway 50 / 100
Finland 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Norway Finland

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Norway Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Norway found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (28 games).

Finland's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Norway went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Norway VS Finland
2.13 Goals Scored 1.14
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.14
88% Over 1.5 71%
75% Over 2.5 57%
63% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Norway

(Home)
11 Jul
Norway
1 : 2
England
05 Jul
Brazil
1 : 2
Norway
30 Jun
Ivory Coast
1 : 2
Norway
26 Jun
Norway
1 : 4
France
23 Jun
Norway
3 : 2
Senegal
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Finland

(Away)
05 Jun
Hungary
2 : 1
Finland
31 May
Germany
4 : 0
Finland
30 Mar
Cape Verde
2 : 1
Finland
27 Mar
New Zealand
0 : 2
Finland
17 Nov
Finland
4 : 0
Andorra
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