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Norwich U23 vs Derby U23

England England

Premier League Cup 2021/2022
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Aghatise O.
42' Event
Dickson-Peters T.
45' Event
Cybulski B.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League Cup 2021/2022 tie, finishing 3-3. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Norwich U23
15%
Draws
0%
Derby U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Norwich U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Norwich U23 average 2.33 goals a game right now, well clear of Derby U23's 1.76.
  • Win probability leans Norwich U23's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Norwich U23 Clean Sheet 13%
Derby U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Norwich U23 Derby U23
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 11 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 14 18
Goals Scored 2.33 1.76
Goals Conceded 2.2 2.27
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 13, 2021 Premier League Cup
Derby U23 vs Norwich U23
5:2
Sep 13, 2021 Premier League Cup
Norwich U23 vs Derby U23
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Norwich U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Dickson-Peters T.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Derby U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Aghatise O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cybulski B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Norwich U23 84 / 100
Derby U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Norwich U23 Derby U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Norwich U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Norwich U23 scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Derby U23 has conceded goals in 94% of their last 33 outings.

These sides typically produce 6.50 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Derby U23 registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Norwich U23 VS Derby U23
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Norwich U23

(Home)
17 May
Wolves U23
2 : 1
Norwich U23
29 Apr
Norwich U23
0 : 2
Wolves U23
25 Apr
West Brom U23
3 : 2
Norwich U23
01 Apr
Norwich U23
1 : 1
Sunderland U23
25 Mar
Stoke City U23
0 : 4
Norwich U23
Page 1 of 6

Derby U23

(Away)
09 May
Crystal Palace U23
3 : 1
Derby U23
02 May
West Ham U23
5 : 0
Derby U23
25 Apr
Derby U23
0 : 1
Tottenham U23
15 Apr
Leicester U23
2 : 1
Derby U23
10 Apr
Derby U23
3 : 4
West Brom U23
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 West Brom U23 6 4 1 1 18:8 13
2 Arsenal U23 6 2 2 2 11:12 8
3 Bournemouth U23 6 2 2 2 8:9 8
4 Southampton U23 6 0 3 3 7:15 3
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Middlesbrough U23 6 3 0 3 13:10 9
2 QPR U23 6 3 0 3 15:14 9
3 Blackburn U23 6 3 0 3 16:16 9
4 Nottingham U23 6 3 0 3 13:17 9
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Derby U23 6 5 1 0 17:9 16
2 Charlton U23 6 3 1 2 14:6 10
3 Norwich U23 6 1 2 3 12:16 5
4 Reading U23 6 1 0 5 6:18 3
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Peterborough U23 6 3 1 2 13:8 10
2 Sheffield Utd U23 6 3 1 2 9:10 10
3 Everton U23 6 3 0 3 8:9 9
4 Burnley U23 6 2 0 4 8:11 6
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wigan U23 6 4 1 1 13:7 13
2 Leeds U23 6 2 2 2 10:10 8
3 Sunderland U23 6 1 3 2 9:13 6
4 Mansfield U23 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 West Ham U23 6 4 1 1 11:5 13
2 Wolves U23 6 3 2 1 8:6 11
3 Exeter U23 6 1 2 3 9:12 5
4 Swansea U23 6 0 3 3 7:12 3
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Huddersfield U23 6 5 1 0 17:3 16
2 Newcastle Utd U23 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
3 Watford U23 6 2 0 4 7:15 6
4 Birmingham U23 6 1 0 5 6:15 3
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fulham U23 6 5 1 0 14:4 16
2 Stoke City U23 6 3 0 3 15:11 9
3 Colchester U23 6 1 2 3 8:10 5
4 Southend U23 6 1 1 4 4:16 4
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)