Sport Picks
Norwich vs Southampton Prediction & H2H Stats
England
EFL Cup 2025/2026 Carrow Road, Norwich 
Match Events
42'
42'
Archer C.
Assist: Stewart R.
46'
46'
Sub
Kvistgaarden M. In: Makama J.
Out: Kvistgaarden M.
48'
48'
Quarshie J.
AI Match Summary
Southampton in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
20%
46%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Southampton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Southampton have won more games recently than Norwich.
- Model gives Southampton a 46% chance of winning this.
- Southampton arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Southampton, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Norwich Clean Sheet 10%
Southampton Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Norwich | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 19 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 2.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 18, 2026 Championship
Southampton vs Norwich
1:0
Dec 13, 2025 Championship
Norwich vs Southampton
2:1
Aug 26, 2025 EFL Cup
Norwich vs Southampton
0:3
Jan 1, 2024 Championship
Norwich vs Southampton
1:1
Aug 12, 2023 Championship
Southampton vs Norwich
4:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Norwich Compare
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Southampton Compare
Top Goalscorer Archer C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Fraser R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Norwich 10 / 100
Southampton 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Norwich Southampton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Southampton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
Norwich scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
Southampton let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.
Recent resilience: Norwich stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Norwich VS Southampton
1.88 Goals Scored 2.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Norwich
(Home) 20 Sept
Norwich
3 : 4 Bolton
17 Sept
Manchester City
5 : 0 Norwich
12 Sept
Middlesbrough
4 : 3 Norwich
09 Sept
Norwich
2 : 1 Birmingham
05 Sept
Sheffield Utd
1 : 3 Norwich
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Norwich
3 : 4 Bolton
09 Sept
Norwich
2 : 1 Birmingham
29 Aug
Norwich
4 : 1 Burnley
15 Aug
Norwich
1 : 2 West Brom
08 Aug
Norwich
4 : 1 Milton Keynes Dons
Page 1 of 3
Southampton
(Away) 19 Sept
Wrexham
2 : 1 Southampton
12 Sept
Southampton
4 : 1 Bristol City
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1 Swansea
05 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 1 Southampton
01 Sept
Birmingham
1 : 1 Southampton
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Wrexham
2 : 1 Southampton
05 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 1 Southampton
01 Sept
Birmingham
1 : 1 Southampton
16 Aug
Watford
2 : 1 Southampton
08 Aug
Colchester
0 : 2 Southampton
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
