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Notaresco Calcio vs Fossombrone

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Pistillo D.
57' Event
Conti M.
64' Event
Infantino S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between Notaresco Calcio and Fossombrone finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Notaresco Calcio
33%
Draws
27%
Fossombrone
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Notaresco Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Notaresco Calcio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Notaresco Calcio are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Notaresco Calcio Clean Sheet 68%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notaresco Calcio Fossombrone
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 11 10
Draws 11 7
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Fossombrone
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Notaresco Calcio
0:1
Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Fossombrone
1:0
Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Notaresco Calcio
1:1
Mar 3, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Notaresco Calcio
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Notaresco Calcio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Fossombrone Compare

Top Goalscorer Conti M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notaresco Calcio 50 / 100
Fossombrone 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notaresco Calcio Fossombrone

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Notaresco Calcio's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Fossombrone let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Notaresco Calcio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Notaresco Calcio VS Fossombrone
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ostiamare34247365:2579
2Ancona34237459:2276
3Teramo342111265:2974
4Atletico Ascoli341413755:3555
5Notaresco Calcio341312943:3151
6Aquila Calcio341491153:4451
7Giulianova341116740:3149
8Vigor Senigallia341213945:4049
9Fossombrone3411111228:3444
10Unipomezia3410121243:4242
11Termoli348151127:3039
12Maceratese341151843:4938
13AS Sora349111440:5038
14Recanatese34881839:5732
15San Marino Calcio34871933:6131
16Calcio Chieti348111531:5524
17Castelfidardo34652330:6523
18Sammaurese34572230:6920