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Notec Czarnkow vs Gedania Gdansk

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Notec Czarnkow play Gedania Gdansk in the III Liga - Group II 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Notec Czarnkow averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. Gedania Gdansk averaged 1.34 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. In past meetings, Notec Czarnkow won 1, Gedania Gdansk won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 12, 2025 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Notec Czarnkow and 1.50 for Gedania Gdansk. This points to a Notec Czarnkow double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Notec Czarnkow
15%
Draws
37%
Gedania Gdansk
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Notec Czarnkow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Notec Czarnkow picked up more points recently compared to Gedania Gdansk.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Notec Czarnkow Clean Sheet 16%
Gedania Gdansk Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notec Czarnkow Gedania Gdansk
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 6 1
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.67 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.36 2.03

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Gedania Gdansk
0:3
Sep 14, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Gedania Gdansk vs Notec Czarnkow
1:5
Mar 16, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Gedania Gdansk
1:2
Aug 23, 2023 III Liga - Group II
Gedania Gdansk vs Notec Czarnkow
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Notec Czarnkow Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Gedania Gdansk Compare

Top Goalscorer Dowgiallo S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gorwa M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notec Czarnkow 46 / 100
Gedania Gdansk 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notec Czarnkow Gedania Gdansk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Notec Czarnkow or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20%
2.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Notec Czarnkow attacking → ← attacking Gedania Gdansk

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Notec Czarnkow scored in 64% of their last 33 games.

Gedania Gdansk let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Notec Czarnkow went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Gedania Gdansk lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 34
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Kleczew34226660:3572
2Blekitni Stargard34196978:4563
3Zawisza34178965:4159
4Pogon Szczecin II341513672:4558
5Lech Poznan II34169965:4757
6Unia Swarzedz341510958:4755
7Polonia Sroda Wielkopol341491167:5851
8Nowe Skalmierzyce341461447:4748
9Elana Torun341114944:4247
10Wda Swiecie3412101247:4146
11Notec Czarnkow341361561:6445
12Swinoujscie341281448:5644
13Cartusia Kartuzy341271543:5143
14Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal341071732:5437
15Kotwica Kornik348121449:6036
16Gedania Gdansk341042043:8034
17Gryf Slupsk346121638:5530
18Vineta Wolin34452548:9717