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Notec Czarnkow vs Unia Swarzedz

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Notec Czarnkow play Unia Swarzedz in the III Liga - Group II 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Notec Czarnkow averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. Unia Swarzedz averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Notec Czarnkow won 1, Unia Swarzedz won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 8, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Notec Czarnkow and 1.75 for Unia Swarzedz. This points to a Unia Swarzedz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Notec Czarnkow
24%
Draws
39%
Unia Swarzedz
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Unia Swarzedz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Notec Czarnkow picked up more points recently compared to Unia Swarzedz.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Notec Czarnkow Clean Sheet 12%
Unia Swarzedz Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notec Czarnkow Unia Swarzedz
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Unia Swarzedz
0:1
Oct 18, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow
3:1
Feb 6, 2025 Club Friendly
Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow
0:0
Nov 23, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow
2:3
Aug 3, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Unia Swarzedz
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Notec Czarnkow Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Unia Swarzedz Compare

Top Goalscorer Karasiewicz W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notec Czarnkow 36 / 100
Unia Swarzedz 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notec Czarnkow Unia Swarzedz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Unia Swarzedz or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Notec Czarnkow attacking → ← attacking Unia Swarzedz

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Notec Czarnkow scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Unia Swarzedz let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Notec Czarnkow went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Unia Swarzedz lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 47
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Zawisza34255473:2380
2Luzino34244679:3976
3Polonia Sroda Wielkopol34206867:4366
4Lipno Steszew341561347:5451
5Notec Czarnkow341471349:4649
6Lech Poznan II341471367:5449
7Elana Torun341471349:5549
8Swinoujscie341471348:5249
9Wda Swiecie341461444:6648
10Unia Swarzedz341381347:4147
11Kluczevia Stargard341371454:4346
12Blekitni Stargard341291356:5145
13Victoria Wrzesnia341331841:4642
14Pogon Szczecin II341251775:6641
15Nowe Skalmierzyce341091535:4639
16Cartusia Kartuzy341151838:5138
17Tluchowo34871937:6631
18Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal34362520:8415