Sport Picks
Nottingham vs Leeds - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
EFL Cup City Ground, Nottingham 
Match Events
26'
26'
Tanaka A.
46'
46'
Schlager X.
50'
50'
James D.
Assist: Longstaff S.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-2. The second leg ended 0-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
35%
39%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Leeds
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Nottingham haven't matched Leeds's recent run of results.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Leeds arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Leeds, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Leeds here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 16%
Leeds Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nottingham | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.36 | 1.64 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 25, 2026 EFL Cup
Nottingham vs Leeds
0:2
Aug 22, 2026 Premier League
Nottingham vs Leeds
0:1
Feb 6, 2026 Premier League
Leeds vs Nottingham
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 Premier League
Nottingham vs Leeds
3:1
Jul 27, 2023 Club Friendly
Nottingham vs Leeds
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nottingham Compare
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Leeds Compare
Top Goalscorer James D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Justin J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nottingham 36 / 100
Leeds 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nottingham Leeds
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Leeds Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Nottingham scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Leeds conceded in 57% of 28 recent games.
Recent resilience: Nottingham stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nottingham VS Leeds
0.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Nottingham
(Home) 23 Oct
Ipswich
1 : 1 Nottingham
18 Oct
Nottingham
0 : 1 Arsenal
11 Oct
Crystal Palace
3 : 1 Nottingham
19 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 1 Coventry
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Nottingham
0 : 1 Arsenal
19 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 1 Coventry
05 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 0 Tottenham
25 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 2 Leeds
22 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 1 Leeds
Page 1 of 3
Leeds
(Away) 25 Oct
Sunderland
0 : 0 Leeds
18 Oct
Leeds
1 : 1 Manchester United
10 Oct
Arsenal
2 : 1 Leeds
20 Sept
Leeds
0 : 0 Crystal Palace
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 6
25 Oct
Sunderland
0 : 0 Leeds
10 Oct
Arsenal
2 : 1 Leeds
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3 Leeds
05 Sept
Brighton
1 : 1 Leeds
25 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 2 Leeds
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Chesterfield 0
Salford 1
Shrewsbury 2
Burton 1
Blackburn 2
Mansfield 0
Sheffield Utd 3
Ipswich -
TBD -
Leicester 1
Northampton 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Preston 2
Huddersfield 1
TBD -
Everton -
Sheffield Wed 1
Bolton 0
Wolves 3
Port Vale 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Barnet 1
QPR 1
Millwall 2
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Rotherham 1
West Brom 4
Manchester City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff 3
Swindon 2
Norwich 4
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Bristol City 0
Walsall 1
Leyton Orient 2
Oxford Utd 0
Bradford City 2
Rochdale 0
Burnley 2
Notts County 1
Watford 1
Crawley Town 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Peterborough 1
Barnsley 2
Wigan 1
Crewe 2
Accrington 1
Colchester 0
Southampton 2
West Ham 3
Portsmouth 1
Fulham -
TBD -
AFC Wimbledon 2
Newport 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stockport County 1
Doncaster 2
Middlesbrough 1
Wrexham 0
Sunderland -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 2
Oldham 0
TBD -
Hull City -
Wycombe 1
Stevenage 2
Bromley 1
Reading 2
Swansea 0
Birmingham 1
TBD -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Tottenham -
TBD -
Cheltenham 1
Charlton 3
Chelsea -
TBD -
Gillingham 0
Luton 3
Nottingham -
TBD -
TBD -
Leeds -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grimsby 1
Blackpool 3
Derby 1
Lincoln City 2
Plymouth 2
Exeter 0
TBD -
Coventry -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Fleetwood Town 4
Shrewsbury 0
Blackburn 1
Sheffield Utd 2
Ipswich 3
Leicester 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Preston 0
Everton 4
Sheffield Wed 0
Wolves 2
Cambridge Utd 0
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 3
West Brom 2
Manchester City -
TBD -
Cardiff 1
Norwich 2
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Walsall 0
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 1
Burnley 0
Watford 1
Peterborough 5
Barnsley 3
Crewe 2
Southampton 1
West Ham 4
Fulham 3
AFC Wimbledon 0
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Doncaster 1
Middlesbrough 3
Sunderland -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Hull City 2
Stevenage 0
Reading 3
Birmingham 1
Brentford 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Tottenham 5
Charlton 1
Chelsea 2
Luton 0
Nottingham 0
Leeds 2
Bournemouth -
TBD -
Blackpool 1
Lincoln City 4
Plymouth 2
Coventry 4
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Sheffield Utd 0
Ipswich 2
Arsenal 4
Everton 1
Wolves 0
Millwall 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Norwich 0
Manchester United 2
Brighton 3
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 3
Peterborough 4
Barnsley 3
West Ham 2
Fulham 3
Crystal Palace 3
Middlesbrough 0
Sunderland 1
Hull City 0
Reading 1
Brentford 2
Liverpool 3
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 6
Leeds 3
Bournemouth 4
Lincoln City 0
Coventry 1
Aston Villa 3
1/8-finals
Fleetwood Town 2
Arsenal 1
Everton 3
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 3
Brighton 2
Bradford City 2
Peterborough 0
Fulham 0
Crystal Palace 1
Sunderland 3
Brentford 2
Liverpool 2
Chelsea 1
Bournemouth 3
Aston Villa 0
Quarter-finals
Fleetwood Town -
Everton -
Manchester City -
Bradford City -
Crystal Palace -
Sunderland -
Liverpool -
Bournemouth -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
