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Notts County vs Bristol Rovers

England England

League Two 2025/2026 Meadow Lane
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Tsaroulla N.
20'
Forde S.
27' Event
Tsaroulla N.

AI Match Summary

The League Two 2025/2026 game between Notts County and Bristol Rovers finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Notts County
22%
Draws
18%
Bristol Rovers
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Notts County

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Bristol Rovers haven't matched Notts County's recent run of results.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Notts County taking it.
  • Regular League Two 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Notts County Clean Sheet 18%
Bristol Rovers Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notts County Bristol Rovers
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 16 15
Draws 3 2
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 League Two
Notts County vs Bristol Rovers
1:1
Nov 29, 2025 League Two
Bristol Rovers vs Notts County
0:1
Nov 3, 2017 FA Cup
Notts County vs Bristol Rovers
4:2
Mar 5, 2016 League Two
Notts County vs Bristol Rovers
0:2
Oct 20, 2015 League Two
Bristol Rovers vs Notts County
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Notts County Compare

Top Goalscorer Tsaroulla N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Bristol Rovers Compare

Top Goalscorer Harrison E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notts County 58 / 100
Bristol Rovers 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notts County Bristol Rovers

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Notts County scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Bristol Rovers conceded in 70% of 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Notts County has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Notts County VS Bristol Rovers
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bromley462415771:4687
2Milton Keynes Dons462414886:4586
3Cambridge Utd462216866:3382
4Salford462561561:5181
5Notts County462481474:5280
6Chesterfield462116971:5679
7Grimsby4622121274:5078
8Barnet4621131270:5376
9Swindon462291570:5975
10Oldham4618141460:4468
11Crewe4619101764:5867
12Colchester4618121662:4966
13Walsall4618111756:5665
14Bristol Rovers461952256:6562
15Fleetwood Town4615161557:5861
16Accrington4614112147:5853
17Gillingham4613141953:7253
18Cheltenham4614102253:7952
19Shrewsbury4613102342:6949
20Newport461272748:7743
21Tranmere4610112554:7941
22Crawley Town468162244:6840
23Harrogate461092739:6839
24Barrow46992845:7836