Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Notts County vs Cheltenham

England England

League Two 2025/2026 Meadow Lane, Nottingham
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Hutchinson I.
Assist: Davison J.
16' Event
Jones J.
Assist: Palmer M.
28' Event
Palmer M.
Assist: Macari L.

AI Match Summary

The League Two 2025/2026 game between Notts County and Cheltenham finished 5-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Notts County.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Notts County
6%
Draws
4%
Cheltenham
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Notts County

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Notts County carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Notts County are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Notts County Clean Sheet 68%
Cheltenham Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notts County Cheltenham
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 9
Draws 3 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 League Two
Notts County vs Cheltenham
5:2
Nov 10, 2025 League Two
Cheltenham vs Notts County
1:2
Apr 21, 2025 League Two
Notts County vs Cheltenham
1:2
Dec 29, 2024 League Two
Cheltenham vs Notts County
3:5
Mar 9, 2019 League Two
Cheltenham vs Notts County
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Notts County Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palmer M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Cheltenham Compare

Top Goalscorer Hutchinson I.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notts County 95 / 100
Cheltenham 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notts County Cheltenham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.20 goals.

Notts County found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Cheltenham's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Away concern: Cheltenham has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Notts County VS Cheltenham
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Notts County

(Home)
18 Jul
Notts County
0 : 2
Nottingham
14 Jul
Randers FC
3 : 1
Notts County
11 Jul
Viborg
2 : 0
Notts County
04 Jul
Alfreton
0 : 5
Notts County
25 May
Notts County
3 : 0
Salford
Page 1 of 6

Cheltenham

(Away)
18 Jul
Evesham
0 : 3
Cheltenham
02 May
Cheltenham
1 : 4
Colchester
25 Apr
Bristol Rovers
4 : 0
Cheltenham
21 Apr
Cheltenham
1 : 3
Tranmere
18 Apr
Cheltenham
1 : 0
Newport
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bromley462415771:4687
2Milton Keynes Dons462414886:4586
3Cambridge Utd462216866:3382
4Salford462561561:5181
5Notts County462481474:5280
6Chesterfield462116971:5679
7Grimsby4622121274:5078
8Barnet4621131270:5376
9Swindon462291570:5975
10Oldham4618141460:4468
11Crewe4619101764:5867
12Colchester4618121662:4966
13Walsall4618111756:5665
14Bristol Rovers461952256:6562
15Fleetwood Town4615161557:5861
16Accrington4614112147:5853
17Gillingham4613141953:7253
18Cheltenham4614102253:7952
19Shrewsbury4613102342:6949
20Newport461272748:7743
21Tranmere4610112554:7941
22Crawley Town468162244:6840
23Harrogate461092739:6839
24Barrow46992845:7836
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)