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Nouadhibou vs Ksar

Mauritania Mauritania

Ligue 1
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Mahmoud A.
59' Event
Dembele K.
75' Event
Dembele K.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 game between Nouadhibou and Ksar finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nouadhibou.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Nouadhibou
15%
Draws
20%
Ksar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nouadhibou

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nouadhibou come out ahead of Ksar on wins alone.
  • Model gives Nouadhibou a 65% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Nouadhibou have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Nouadhibou Clean Sheet 68%
Ksar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nouadhibou Ksar
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 5
Draws 9 6
Losses 3 19
Goals Scored 1.73 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.6 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 10, 2026 Ligue 1
Nouadhibou vs Ksar
5:0
Dec 16, 2025 Ligue 1
Ksar vs Nouadhibou
0:2
Apr 29, 2025 Ligue 1
Nouadhibou vs Ksar
3:0
Dec 13, 2024 Ligue 1
Ksar vs Nouadhibou
0:1
May 28, 2024 Ligue 1
Ksar vs Nouadhibou
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nouadhibou Compare

Top Goalscorer Dembele K.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Mahmoud A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Ksar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nouadhibou 95 / 100
Ksar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nouadhibou Ksar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nouadhibou Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nouadhibou scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Ksar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Nouadhibou has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nouadhibou VS Ksar
2.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Nouadhibou

(Home)
23 May
Nouadhibou
1 : 0
Inter Nouakchott
17 May
Nouakchott King's
3 : 2
Nouadhibou
10 May
Nouadhibou
4 : 1
Police
04 May
Douane
2 : 2
Nouadhibou
25 Apr
Kaedi
0 : 1
Nouadhibou
Page 1 of 6

Ksar

(Away)
24 May
Ksar
1 : 3
Tevragh-Zeina
19 May
Ksar
2 : 3
Nzeidane
09 May
Gendrim
1 : 4
Ksar
04 May
Ksar
0 : 1
Kaedi
10 Apr
Nouadhibou
5 : 0
Ksar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nouadhibou 26 17 7 2 49:15 58
2 Nzeidane 26 13 7 6 42:35 46
3 Douane 26 12 9 5 40:29 45
4 Pompiers 26 11 11 4 29:22 44
5 Nouakchott Academy 26 10 9 7 32:22 39
6 Gendrim 26 9 10 7 26:29 37
7 Chemal 26 10 6 10 34:35 36
8 Nouakchott King's 26 8 10 8 37:34 34
9 SNIM 26 7 12 7 29:28 33
10 Tevragh-Zeina 26 7 11 8 34:33 32
11 Police 26 5 11 10 28:31 26
12 Kaedi 26 5 8 13 21:37 23
13 Ksar 26 4 5 17 23:48 17
14 Inter Nouakchott 26 3 6 17 24:50 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)