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Nova Cidade vs Friburguense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

71' Event
Alves de Macedo I.
73' Event
Jean

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Carioca B1 2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Nova Cidade
6%
Draws
4%
Friburguense
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nova Cidade

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nova Cidade lately — more wins on the board than Friburguense.
  • Model gives Nova Cidade a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 16%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 68%
Friburguense Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Cidade Friburguense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 11 7
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 0.63 0.38
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 8, 2025 Carioca B1
Nova Cidade vs Friburguense
1:0
Nov 12, 2024 Carioca B1
Nova Cidade vs Friburguense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nova Cidade Compare

Top Goalscorer Jean
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Friburguense Compare

Top Goalscorer Alves de Macedo I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Cidade 95 / 100
Friburguense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Cidade Friburguense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: Friburguense registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Nova Cidade's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Friburguense conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Nova Cidade VS Friburguense
0.63 Goals Scored 0.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
25% Over 1.5 25%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Cidade

(Home)
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
01 Nov
Duque de Caxias
2 : 2
Nova Cidade
25 Oct
Bonsucesso
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
18 Oct
Nova Cidade
0 : 0
Artsul
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Friburguense

(Away)
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Paduano EC
2 : 0
Friburguense
01 Nov
Friburguense
0 : 1
Niteroiense
25 Oct
Sao Cristovao
3 : 1
Friburguense
18 Oct
Friburguense
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Artsul 8 5 1 2 10:5 16
2 Paduano EC 8 5 1 2 6:3 16
3 Sao Goncalo 8 3 4 1 10:2 13
4 Perolas Negras 8 3 2 3 8:9 11
5 Friburguense 8 2 4 2 5:4 10
6 Nova Cidade 8 2 4 2 10:11 10
7 Sao Cristovao 8 2 1 5 3:9 7
8 Serrano FC 8 1 3 4 5:9 6
9 Belford Roxo 8 0 6 2 5:10 6
Promotion - Carioca B1 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2024 (Main)