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Nova Cidade vs Friburguense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2024
Nova Cidade Logo

Nova Cidade

1 - 1
FT
Friburguense Logo

Friburguense

Our Tip

Match Events

71' Event
Alves de Macedo I.
73' Event
Jean
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Carioca B1 2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Nova Cidade
20%
Draws
47%
Friburguense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Friburguense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Nova Cidade at 0.89 per game, Friburguense at 0.71.
  • Model gives Friburguense a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 24%
Friburguense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Cidade Friburguense
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 8
Draws 10 8
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 0.89 0.71
Goals Conceded 1.29 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 8, 2025 Carioca B1
Nova Cidade vs Friburguense
1:0
Nov 12, 2024 Carioca B1
Nova Cidade vs Friburguense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nova Cidade Compare

Top Goalscorer Jean
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Friburguense Compare

Top Goalscorer Alves de Macedo I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Cidade 13 / 100
Friburguense 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Cidade Friburguense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Friburguense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nova Cidade scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Friburguense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Nova Cidade has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nova Cidade VS Friburguense
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Cidade

(Home)
19 Sept
Niteroiense
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
12 Sept
Nova Cidade
2 : 2
Sao Cristovao
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
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Friburguense

(Away)
20 Sept
Friburguense
2 : 0
Campos AA
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
30 Aug
Serra Macaense
0 : 1
Friburguense
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Artsul 8 5 1 2 10:5 16
2 Paduano EC 8 5 1 2 6:3 16
3 Sao Goncalo 8 3 4 1 10:2 13
4 Perolas Negras 8 3 2 3 8:9 11
5 Friburguense 8 2 4 2 5:4 10
6 Nova Cidade 8 2 4 2 10:11 10
7 Sao Cristovao 8 2 1 5 3:9 7
8 Serrano FC 8 1 3 4 5:9 6
9 Belford Roxo 8 0 6 2 5:10 6
Promotion - Carioca B1 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2024 (Main)