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Nova Cidade vs Goncalense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

90' Event
Sorriso
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Nova Cidade and Goncalense finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Goncalense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Nova Cidade
35%
Draws
28%
Goncalense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nova Cidade

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nova Cidade come out ahead of Goncalense on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Nova Cidade taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 20%
Goncalense Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Cidade Goncalense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 11 10
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 0.93 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2025 Carioca B1
Nova Cidade vs Goncalense
0:1
Oct 14, 2020 Carioca 2
Nova Cidade vs Goncalense
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Cidade 36 / 100
Goncalense 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Cidade Goncalense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Cidade's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Goncalense has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Nova Cidade remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nova Cidade VS Goncalense
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
25% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Cidade

(Home)
12 Sept
Nova Cidade
2 : 2
Sao Cristovao
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
01 Nov
Duque de Caxias
2 : 2
Nova Cidade
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Goncalense

(Away)
12 Sept
Goncalense
1 : 1
Niteroiense
05 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 0
Goncalense
08 Nov
Goncalense
0 : 1
Campo Grande
05 Nov
Goncalense
1 : 0
Artsul
01 Nov
Bonsucesso
1 : 1
Goncalense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)