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Nova Cidade vs Goncalense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

90' Event
Sorriso
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Nova Cidade and Goncalense finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Goncalense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Nova Cidade
39%
Draws
31%
Goncalense
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Goncalense come out ahead of Nova Cidade on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 68%
Goncalense Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Cidade Goncalense
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 11
Draws 11 9
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 0.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2025 Carioca B1
Nova Cidade vs Goncalense
0:1
Oct 14, 2020 Carioca 2
Nova Cidade vs Goncalense
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Cidade 41 / 100
Goncalense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Cidade Goncalense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Cidade's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Goncalense has conceded goals in 63% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Nova Cidade remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nova Cidade VS Goncalense
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
25% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Cidade

(Home)
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
01 Nov
Duque de Caxias
2 : 2
Nova Cidade
25 Oct
Bonsucesso
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
18 Oct
Nova Cidade
0 : 0
Artsul
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Goncalense

(Away)
08 Nov
Goncalense
0 : 1
Campo Grande
05 Nov
Goncalense
1 : 0
Artsul
01 Nov
Bonsucesso
1 : 1
Goncalense
25 Oct
Serrano FC
2 : 1
Goncalense
18 Oct
Goncalense
0 : 1
Sao Cristovao
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bonsucesso1164114:722
2Sao Cristovao1154214:819
3Serrano FC1153314:1118
4Duque de Caxias1153310:918
5Niteroiense1144316:1416
6Goncalense1151511:916
7Nova Cidade114439:916
8Campo Grande113629:815
9Artsul1134411:1013
10AA Carapebus113356:1312
11Paduano EC1131712:1810
12Friburguense111193:134
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)