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Nova Conquista vs Gurupi Prediction & H2H Stats

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Campeonato Tocantinense 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 game between Nova Conquista and Gurupi finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nova Conquista.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Nova Conquista
15%
Draws
59%
Gurupi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gurupi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gurupi come out ahead of Nova Conquista on wins alone.
  • Gurupi are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Nova Conquista Clean Sheet 18%
Gurupi Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Conquista Gurupi
Matches Played 23 32
Wins 5 9
Draws 9 13
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.09 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.52 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 23, 2022 Tocantinense
Nova Conquista vs Gurupi
3:1
Feb 28, 2021 Tocantinense
Gurupi vs Nova Conquista
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Conquista 15 / 100
Gurupi 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Conquista Gurupi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gurupi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Nova Conquista's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 23 recent games.

Gurupi let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

Solid form: Nova Conquista remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Gurupi
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Conquista

(Home)
12 Mar
Araguacema
3 : 1
Nova Conquista
06 Mar
Nova Conquista
2 : 3
Tocantinopolis
02 Mar
Nova Conquista
0 : 1
Capital FC
26 Feb
Tocantins
0 : 2
Nova Conquista
19 Feb
Interporto
3 : 0
Nova Conquista
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Gurupi

(Away)
21 Mar
Uniao Carmolandense
1 : 1
Gurupi
14 Mar
Gurupi
1 : 2
Uniao Carmolandense
07 Mar
Guarai SC
0 : 1
Gurupi
21 Feb
Gurupi
0 : 2
Tocantinopolis
14 Feb
Gurupi
5 : 0
Bela Vista-TO
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tocantinopolis 9 7 1 1 28:8 22
2 Capital FC 9 6 2 1 16:6 20
3 Interporto 9 5 4 0 16:5 19
4 Uniao Carmolandense 9 5 3 1 11:8 18
5 Bela Vista-TO 9 3 3 3 12:10 12
6 Palmas 9 2 3 4 16:11 9
7 Nova Conquista 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Araguacema 9 2 2 5 12:14 8
9 Gurupi 9 1 2 6 8:17 5
10 Tocantins 9 0 1 8 4:41 1
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 (Play Offs)