Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nova Mutum EC vs Academia

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense 2025 Estádio Municipal Valdir Doilho Wons, Nova Mutum
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Miguel
46'
Sub
Miguel In: Noville C.
Out: Miguel
47'
Mateus Henrique

AI Match Summary

The Matogrossense 2025 game between Nova Mutum EC and Academia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nova Mutum EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Nova Mutum EC
15%
Draws
0%
Academia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nova Mutum EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nova Mutum EC come out ahead of Academia on wins alone.
  • Nova Mutum EC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Matogrossense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Nova Mutum EC Clean Sheet 16%
Academia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Mutum EC Academia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 7
Draws 7 3
Losses 11 20
Goals Scored 1.23 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2025 Matogrossense
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Oct 26, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Oct 19, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Academia vs Nova Mutum EC
1:1
Oct 12, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Feb 10, 2024 Matogrossense
Academia vs Nova Mutum EC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nova Mutum EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Miritz
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Academia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Mutum EC 84 / 100
Academia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Mutum EC Academia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nova Mutum EC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Academia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Academia lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Nova Mutum EC scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Nova Mutum EC VS Academia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.25
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Mutum EC

(Home)
11 Feb
Operario VG
3 : 2
Nova Mutum EC
08 Feb
Nova Mutum EC
2 : 1
Mixto
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
31 Jan
Cuiaba
2 : 1
Nova Mutum EC
28 Jan
Nova Mutum EC
3 : 2
Chapada
Page 1 of 7

Academia

(Away)
22 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Luverdense
15 Feb
Sport Sinop
2 : 0
Academia
08 Feb
Mixto
3 : 1
Academia
02 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Cuiaba
29 Jan
Academia
0 : 1
Primavera AC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mixto 8 5 3 0 17:5 18
2 Cuiaba 8 4 4 0 18:5 16
3 Operario VG 8 4 4 0 11:4 16
4 Primavera AC 8 3 4 1 12:6 13
5 Nova Mutum EC 8 3 1 4 7:18 10
6 Uniao Rondonopolis 8 2 3 3 8:9 9
7 Luverdense 8 2 2 4 7:14 8
8 Sport Sinop 8 1 2 5 4:14 5
9 Academia 8 0 1 7 2:11 1
10 Caceres 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Matogrossense 2 (Main)