Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Novigrad vs Cres

Croatia Croatia

3. HNL West
Novigrad Logo

Novigrad

2 - 0
FT
Cres Logo

Cres

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Novigrad in this 3. HNL West matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Novigrad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Novigrad
30%
Draws
54%
Cres
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cres

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Novigrad have won more games recently than Cres.
  • Model gives Cres a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Cres here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Novigrad Clean Sheet 15%
Cres Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novigrad Cres
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.5 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2022 3. HNL West
Novigrad vs Cres
2:0
Sep 18, 2021 3. HNL West
Cres vs Novigrad
1:0
May 8, 2021 3. HNL West
Cres vs Novigrad
3:1
Nov 4, 2020 3. HNL West
Novigrad vs Cres
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novigrad 10 / 100
Cres 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novigrad Cres

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cres Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Novigrad scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Cres conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Novigrad stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Novigrad VS Cres
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Novigrad

(Home)
28 May
Novigrad
3 : 4
Vinodol
21 May
Jadran Porec
0 : 0
Novigrad
14 May
Novigrad
2 : 3
Rudar Labin
07 May
Krk
4 : 1
Novigrad
30 Apr
Novigrad
3 : 3
Grobnican
Page 1 of 6

Cres

(Away)
28 May
Cres
7 : 1
Naprijed Hreljin
21 May
Pazinka
2 : 1
Cres
14 May
Cres
3 : 1
Buje
07 May
Vinodol
1 : 0
Cres
30 Apr
Cres
1 : 1
Jadran Porec
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Crikvenica 26 18 2 6 53:24 56
2 Grobnican 26 16 7 3 66:23 55
3 Jadran Porec 26 16 6 4 59:22 53
4 Pazinka 26 12 5 9 31:33 41
5 Krk 26 12 3 11 40:42 39
6 Uljanik Pula 26 10 7 9 44:32 37
7 Novigrad 26 10 6 10 39:39 36
8 Rudar Labin 26 11 3 12 37:39 36
9 Cres 26 8 5 13 36:44 29
10 Nehaj Senj 26 7 8 11 26:40 29
11 Buje 26 9 2 15 22:36 29
12 NK Pomorac 26 7 5 14 32:62 26
13 Vinodol 26 5 9 12 31:47 24
14 Naprijed Hreljin 26 5 4 17 24:57 19
Promotion - Prva NL 2022/2023 (Main)
Promotion - 3. HNL - Promotion Play Offs (Main)