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Novo Hamburgo vs Sao Luiz

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Estadio do Vale
Our Tip

Match Events

35'
Sub
Guilherme Mantuan In: Muriel
Out: Guilherme Mantuan
54'
Sub
Gabriel Santiago In: Eduardo
Out: Gabriel Santiago
64'
Sub
Valber Junior In: Escuro
Out: Valber Junior

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Gaucho matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Novo Hamburgo
20%
Draws
38%
Sao Luiz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Novo Hamburgo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Novo Hamburgo lately — more wins on the board than Sao Luiz.
  • Model gives Novo Hamburgo a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Novo Hamburgo Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Luiz Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novo Hamburgo Sao Luiz
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 10 10
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Sao Luiz
1:1
Mar 2, 2026 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs Novo Hamburgo
1:0
Jan 21, 2026 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs Novo Hamburgo
1:0
Feb 3, 2024 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Sao Luiz
1:0
Feb 2, 2023 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs Novo Hamburgo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Novo Hamburgo Compare

Top Goalscorer Luam Parede
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sao Luiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Rangel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novo Hamburgo 42 / 100
Sao Luiz 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novo Hamburgo Sao Luiz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Luiz has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Novo Hamburgo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Novo Hamburgo's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Novo Hamburgo VS Sao Luiz
1 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
67% Over 1.5 63%
33% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Novo Hamburgo5
EC Sao Jose (PA)3
Sao Luiz3
SER Caxias do Sul2
Final
Novo Hamburgo1
Sao Luiz2