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Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Novorizontino play Botafogo SP in the Serie B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Novorizontino averaged 1.48 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Botafogo SP averaged 0.86 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Novorizontino won 3, Botafogo SP won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Novorizontino and 0.94 for Botafogo SP. This points to a Novorizontino double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Novorizontino
31%
Draws
25%
Botafogo SP
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Novorizontino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Novorizontino picked up more points recently compared to Botafogo SP.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Novorizontino Clean Sheet 24%
Botafogo SP Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novorizontino Botafogo SP
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 16 10
Draws 10 8
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.48 0.86
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie B
Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP
1:0
Jan 25, 2026 Paulista
Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP
2:0
Oct 24, 2025 Serie B
Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP
1:1
Jul 6, 2025 Serie B
Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino
0:0
Feb 23, 2025 Paulista
Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Novorizontino Compare

Top Goalscorer Robson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Botafogo SP Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novorizontino 44 / 100
Botafogo SP 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novorizontino Botafogo SP

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Novorizontino or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +21.4%
3.57
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Novorizontino attacking → ← attacking Botafogo SP

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Novorizontino scored in 82% of their last 33 games.

Botafogo SP let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Novorizontino went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Botafogo SP lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

58 Points in last 5 38
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Criciuma1796220:1233
2Vila Nova FC1694325:1831
3Novorizontino1686227:1430
4Fortaleza1684420:1628
5Operario-PR1684420:1728
6EC Juventude1675416:826
7Sao Bernardo1674521:1425
8Sport Recife1667318:1225
9Goias1673616:2124
10Cuiaba1658312:923
11Athletic Club1657416:1622
12Nautico1663721:1921
13Atletico GO1656518:1921
14Botafogo SP1654717:1519
15CRB1654724:2919
16Londrina1653824:2418
17Ceara1645715:2017
18Avai1634916:2413
19Ponte Preta17221311:338
20America MG16131210:276