Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ntugasaze vs Bright Stars - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Big League 2025/2026
Ntugasaze Logo

Ntugasaze

1 - 0
FT
Bright Stars Logo

Bright Stars

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Big League 2025/2026 game between Ntugasaze and Bright Stars finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ntugasaze.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Ntugasaze
15%
Draws
49%
Bright Stars
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bright Stars

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Bright Stars haven't matched Ntugasaze's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Ntugasaze Clean Sheet 20%
Bright Stars Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ntugasaze Bright Stars
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 7
Draws 9 11
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.35 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Big League
Bright Stars vs Ntugasaze
0:2
Jan 1, 2026 Big League
Ntugasaze vs Bright Stars
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ntugasaze 32 / 100
Bright Stars 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ntugasaze Bright Stars

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ntugasaze's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Bright Stars conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Bright Stars lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ntugasaze VS Bright Stars
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ntugasaze

(Home)
07 Oct
Ntugasaze
1 : 0
Mbarara City
19 Sept
Vipers
3 : 0
Ntugasaze
08 Sept
BUL
4 : 1
Ntugasaze
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
29 Aug
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Ntugasaze
Page 1 of 7

Bright Stars

(Away)
06 Jun
Bright Stars
0 : 2
Kataka
24 May
Wakiso Giants
1 : 4
Bright Stars
17 May
Bright Stars
0 : 2
Ntugasaze
10 May
Iganga United
1 : 1
Bright Stars
03 May
Bright Stars
0 : 1
Blacks Power
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Blacks Power 30 16 7 7 35:18 55
2 Ntugasaze 30 14 11 5 42:22 53
3 Kataka 30 16 3 11 40:26 51
4 Kigezi HomeBoyz 30 14 9 7 36:22 51
5 Paidha Black Angels 30 15 7 8 33:23 50
6 Bunyaruguru 30 12 7 11 31:25 43
7 Young Elephant 30 12 6 12 44:40 42
8 Kiyinda Boys 30 12 6 12 40:31 40
9 Iganga United 30 11 5 14 30:33 38
10 Catda 30 9 10 11 24:32 37
11 Kaaro Karungi 30 10 8 12 26:30 36
12 Onduparaka 30 9 9 12 24:32 36
13 Nebbi Central 30 9 9 12 35:42 34
14 Bright Stars 30 7 11 12 25:31 32
15 Wakiso Giants 30 8 7 15 31:48 31
16 Mbale Heroes 30 6 5 19 14:67 17
Promotion - Premier League (Main)