Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer, Guayaquil
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Cechi I.
28' Event
Mejia F.
87' Event
Lugo J.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Nueve de Octubre and Vinotinto finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nueve de Octubre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Nueve de Octubre
35%
Draws
44%
Vinotinto
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vinotinto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Vinotinto carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Vinotinto a 44% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Nueve de Octubre Clean Sheet 23%
Vinotinto Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nueve de Octubre Vinotinto
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 14
Draws 12 7
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.28 1.34
Goals Conceded 0.72 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre
1:0
Jun 9, 2026 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto
2:1
Apr 8, 2026 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre
0:1
Oct 16, 2024 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre
5:2
Sep 1, 2024 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nueve de Octubre Compare

Top Goalscorer Cechi I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mejia F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Vinotinto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nueve de Octubre 29 / 100
Vinotinto 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nueve de Octubre Vinotinto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vinotinto Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Nueve de Octubre's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Nueve de Octubre went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vinotinto let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Nueve de Octubre VS Vinotinto
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nueve de Octubre

(Home)
17 Sept
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
12 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 1
Independiente Juniors
04 Sept
Atletico FC
2 : 2
Nueve de Octubre
28 Aug
CD Cuenca Juniors
1 : 1
Nueve de Octubre
20 Aug
San Antonio
0 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
Page 1 of 6

Vinotinto

(Away)
17 Sept
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
11 Sept
CD Cuenca Juniors
0 : 2
Vinotinto
03 Sept
Vinotinto
4 : 2
San Antonio
27 Aug
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Atletico FC
22 Aug
Dep. Santo Domingo
0 : 0
Vinotinto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente Juniors 22 10 9 3 28:16 39
2 Atletico FC 22 9 11 2 25:14 38
3 Nueve de Octubre 22 9 10 3 22:14 37
4 CD Cuenca Juniors 22 9 7 6 20:23 34
5 Vinotinto 22 8 7 7 25:17 31
6 San Antonio 22 7 10 5 24:21 31
7 LDU Portoviejo 22 7 6 9 17:22 27
8 Cumbaya 22 5 11 6 22:22 26
9 Dep. Santo Domingo 22 6 10 6 17:16 25
10 Gualaceo 22 7 8 7 19:16 23
11 EL Nacional 22 2 6 14 15:32 9
12 22 de Julio 22 4 3 15 10:31 9
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Serie B (Relegation Group)