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Numancia vs Lealtad

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Alvarez J.

AI Match Summary

Lealtad in this Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lealtad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Numancia
20%
Draws
10%
Lealtad
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Numancia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Numancia lately — more wins on the board than Lealtad.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Numancia taking it.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Numancia Clean Sheet 68%
Lealtad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Numancia Lealtad
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 7
Draws 10 5
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 1.29 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Numancia vs Lealtad
0:1
Sep 6, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Lealtad vs Numancia
1:1
Feb 27, 2021 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Lealtad vs Numancia
1:1
Nov 8, 2020 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Numancia vs Lealtad
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Numancia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Lealtad Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Numancia 95 / 100
Lealtad 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Numancia Lealtad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NUM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lealtad has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Numancia found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Numancia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Numancia VS Lealtad
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Numancia

(Home)
17 May
UD Poblense
2 : 1
Numancia
10 May
Numancia
0 : 1
UD Poblense
03 May
Numancia
1 : 0
Marino De Luanco
26 Apr
Langreo
1 : 1
Numancia
19 Apr
UD Samano
0 : 3
Numancia
Page 1 of 7

Lealtad

(Away)
07 Aug
Llanera
1 : 0
Lealtad
03 May
Salamanca CF UDS
2 : 1
Lealtad
26 Apr
Lealtad
2 : 2
Coruxo FC
19 Apr
UD Ourense
3 : 1
Lealtad
12 Apr
Lealtad
2 : 3
Valladolid Promesas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Fabril 34 20 9 5 59:22 69
2 Real Oviedo B 34 16 10 8 50:35 58
3 Numancia 34 15 11 8 46:31 56
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 40:34 55
5 Coruxo FC 34 15 7 12 46:37 52
6 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 14 9 11 37:36 51
7 Real Avila 34 14 8 12 48:52 50
8 Salamanca CF UDS 34 14 8 12 43:36 50
9 Rayo Cantabria 34 11 15 8 63:50 48
10 Bergantinos 34 13 9 12 44:37 48
11 Atletico Astorga 34 12 9 13 41:43 45
12 Marino De Luanco 34 11 12 11 31:26 45
13 Valladolid Promesas 34 12 9 13 59:58 45
14 Langreo 34 11 10 13 35:41 43
15 Sarriana 34 11 7 16 42:42 40
16 Burgos CF B 34 8 12 14 38:55 36
17 Lealtad 34 7 7 20 31:54 28
18 UD Samano 34 3 6 25 23:87 15
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)