Sport Picks
Nzoia Sugar vs Luanda Villa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kenya
Super League 
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 3-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nzoia Sugar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Nzoia Sugar have won more games recently than Luanda Villa.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on Nzoia Sugar taking it.
- Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Nzoia Sugar Clean Sheet 68%
Luanda Villa Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nzoia Sugar | Luanda Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 9, 2026 Super League
Nzoia Sugar vs Luanda Villa
3:3
Dec 17, 2025 Super League
Luanda Villa vs Nzoia Sugar
0:0
Apr 20, 2025 Super League
Nzoia Sugar vs Luanda Villa
0:1
Jan 26, 2025 Super League
Luanda Villa vs Nzoia Sugar
2:3
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nzoia Sugar 50 / 100
Luanda Villa 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nzoia Sugar Luanda Villa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nzoia Sugar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Luanda Villa conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Luanda Villa lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Nzoia Sugar scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
Nzoia Sugar VS Luanda Villa
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Nzoia Sugar
(Home) 13 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
1 : 0 Kibera
07 Jun
Mombasa United
1 : 0 Nzoia Sugar
01 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
3 : 1 Fortune Sacco
27 May
Talanta FC
2 : 0 Nzoia Sugar
24 May
Nzoia Sugar
0 : 1 Naivas FC
Page 1 of 6
13 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
1 : 0 Kibera
01 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
3 : 1 Fortune Sacco
24 May
Nzoia Sugar
0 : 1 Naivas FC
09 May
Nzoia Sugar
3 : 3 Luanda Villa
19 Apr
Nzoia Sugar
2 : 0 Darajani Gogo
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Luanda Villa
(Away) 13 Jun
Luanda Villa
0 : 1 Soy United
07 Jun
Vihiga United
1 : 1 Luanda Villa
01 Jun
Luanda Villa
1 : 0 Mombasa United
28 May
Kabati
5 : 0 Luanda Villa
23 May
Gucha Stars
2 : 1 Luanda Villa
Page 1 of 6
07 Jun
Vihiga United
1 : 1 Luanda Villa
28 May
Kabati
5 : 0 Luanda Villa
23 May
Gucha Stars
2 : 1 Luanda Villa
09 May
Nzoia Sugar
3 : 3 Luanda Villa
26 Apr
Kisumu All-Stars
0 : 2 Luanda Villa
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Migori | 38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 57:29 | 81 |
| 2 | 3K FC | 38 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 62:26 | 77 |
| 3 | Mombasa United | 38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 51:32 | 76 |
| 4 | Equity Bank | 38 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 56:28 | 74 |
| 5 | MOFA | 38 | 16 | 16 | 6 | 51:30 | 64 |
| 6 | Fortune Sacco | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 61:41 | 63 |
| 7 | Naivas FC | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 47:30 | 61 |
| 8 | Talanta FC | 38 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 53:41 | 57 |
| 9 | Kibera | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 32:33 | 53 |
| 10 | Soy United | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 31:27 | 52 |
| 11 | Nzoia Sugar | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:36 | 50 |
| 12 | Gucha Stars | 38 | 12 | 8 | 18 | 35:41 | 44 |
| 13 | Luanda Villa | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 30:51 | 43 |
| 14 | Kabati | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 32:52 | 39 |
| 15 | Kisumu All-Stars | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 23:47 | 39 |
| 16 | Nairobi City Stars | 38 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 32:44 | 39 |
| 17 | Darajani Gogo | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 27:48 | 38 |
| 18 | MCF | 38 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 24:42 | 34 |
| 19 | Vihiga United | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29:55 | 30 |
| 20 | Mwatate United | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 27:64 | 25 |
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
