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Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 City Light Stadium, Okayama
Okayama Logo

Okayama

2 - 3
FT
Cerezo Osaka Logo

Cerezo Osaka

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Yokoyama Y.
Assist: Cools D.
37'
Ohata A.
54'
Sub
Kimura T. In: Gaucho L.
Out: Kimura T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Cerezo Osaka in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cerezo Osaka.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Okayama
20%
Draws
32%
Cerezo Osaka
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Okayama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cerezo Osaka lately — more wins on the board than Okayama.
  • Model gives Okayama a 48% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Cerezo Osaka have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Okayama Clean Sheet 68%
Cerezo Osaka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Okayama Cerezo Osaka
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 18
Draws 2 3
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.48 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Okayama
2:1
May 24, 2026 J1 League
Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka
2:3
Mar 18, 2026 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Okayama
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 J1 League
Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka
1:2
Apr 2, 2025 J1 League
Cerezo Osaka vs Okayama
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Okayama Compare

Top Goalscorer Gaucho L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Cerezo Osaka Compare

Top Goalscorer Yokoyama Y.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Uejo S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Okayama 68 / 100
Cerezo Osaka 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Okayama Cerezo Osaka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Okayama Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Okayama scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Cerezo Osaka let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Okayama stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Okayama VS Cerezo Osaka
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Okayama

(Home)
07 Oct
Okayama
1 : 0
Chiba
29 Sept
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
1 : 2
Okayama
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
13 Sept
Urawa Reds
1 : 2
Okayama
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Page 1 of 6

Cerezo Osaka

(Away)
07 Oct
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 0
Kagoshima United
29 Sept
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 2
Cerezo Osaka
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1
Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6 : 1
Cerezo Osaka
06 Sept
Cerezo Osaka
0 : 0
Verdy
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)