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Okayama vs Shimizu S-Pulse

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 City Light Stadium, Okayama
Okayama Logo

Okayama

2 - 0
FT
Shimizu S-Pulse Logo

Shimizu S-Pulse

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Shirai K.
Assist: Werik Popo
40'
Omori H.
60'
Sub
Takahashi T. In: Chiba K.
Out: Takahashi T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Okayama in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Okayama.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Okayama
15%
Draws
37%
Shimizu S-Pulse
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Okayama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Okayama average 1.41 goals a game right now, well clear of Shimizu S-Pulse's 1.28.
  • Win probability leans Okayama's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Okayama Clean Sheet 68%
Shimizu S-Pulse Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Okayama Shimizu S-Pulse
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 13
Draws 2 3
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.41 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J1 League
Okayama vs Shimizu S-Pulse
2:0
Mar 14, 2026 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Okayama
2:1
Dec 6, 2025 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Okayama
1:2
Mar 2, 2025 J1 League
Okayama vs Shimizu S-Pulse
1:1
Jun 30, 2024 J2 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Okayama
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Okayama Compare

Top Goalscorer Shirai K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gaucho L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Shimizu S-Pulse Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Okayama 50 / 100
Shimizu S-Pulse 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Okayama Shimizu S-Pulse

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Okayama Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Okayama scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Shimizu S-Pulse let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Okayama stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Okayama VS Shimizu S-Pulse
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Okayama

(Home)
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
13 Sept
Urawa Reds
1 : 2
Okayama
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
02 Sept
Chiba
1 : 2
Okayama
29 Aug
Nagoya Grampus
2 : 1
Okayama
Page 1 of 6

Shimizu S-Pulse

(Away)
19 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
Chiba
12 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 0
Avispa Fukuoka
06 Sept
Kawasaki Frontale
3 : 1
Shimizu S-Pulse
02 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 1
FC Tokyo
29 Aug
Shimizu S-Pulse
0 : 1
Kashiwa Reysol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
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Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)