Sport Picks
Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J1 League City Light Stadium, Okayama 
Match Events
23'
23'
Sub
Dudu Giusti In: Arai I.
Out: Dudu Giusti
46'
46'
Sub
Yamasaki R. In: Thiago
Out: Yamasaki R.
54'
54'
Meireles L. M.
Assist: Miyamoto E.
AI Match Summary
The J1 League game between Okayama and V-Varen Nagasaki finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Okayama.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
48%
15%
37%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Okayama
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
48%
/ Medium Confidence
- V-Varen Nagasaki haven't matched Okayama's recent run of results.
- Model gives Okayama a 48% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Okayama Clean Sheet 68%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Okayama | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 14 | 10 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 14 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.4 | 1.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.47 | 1.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 J1 League
Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:0
May 6, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Okayama
2:1
Mar 21, 2026 J1 League
Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki
0:1
Sep 29, 2024 J2 League
Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:0
May 12, 2024 J2 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Okayama
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Okayama Compare
Top Goalscorer Meireles L. M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
V-Varen Nagasaki Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Okayama 50 / 100
V-Varen Nagasaki 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Okayama V-Varen Nagasaki
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Okayama Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Okayama found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).
V-Varen Nagasaki's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.
Solid form: Okayama remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Okayama VS V-Varen Nagasaki
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Okayama
(Home) 10 Oct
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 1 Okayama
07 Oct
Okayama
1 : 0 Chiba
29 Sept
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
1 : 2 Okayama
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2 Kyoto
13 Sept
Urawa Reds
1 : 2 Okayama
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
Okayama
1 : 0 Chiba
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2 Kyoto
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
26 Aug
Okayama
3 : 0 Belugarosso Iwami
22 Aug
Okayama
0 : 0 Verdy
Page 1 of 3
V-Varen Nagasaki
(Away) 07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
09 Sept
Kochi United
0 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
09 Sept
Kochi United
0 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
06 Sept
Vissel Kobe
3 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
21 Aug
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 2 V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 21 |
| 2 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20:6 | 17 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:9 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 9 | Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Reds | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:21 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | 12 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:8 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:13 | 7 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7:14 | 6 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 19 | Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 20 | Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7:18 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
