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Okzhetpes vs FC Astana

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Cup 2025 Okzhetpes Stadium
Sun, Apr 13, 2025
1 - 2
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Okzhetpes play FC Astana in the Kazakhstan Cup 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Okzhetpes averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. FC Astana averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. In past meetings, Okzhetpes won 1, FC Astana won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Okzhetpes and 1.13 for FC Astana. This points to a FC Astana double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Okzhetpes
22%
Draws
43%
FC Astana
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: FC Astana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Okzhetpes picked up more points recently compared to FC Astana.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68%
Okzhetpes Clean Sheet 21%
FC Astana Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Okzhetpes FC Astana
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 8 10
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.38 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs FC Astana
1:0
Sep 28, 2025 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs FC Astana
1:2
Jun 15, 2025 Premier League
FC Astana vs Okzhetpes
5:2
Apr 13, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Okzhetpes vs FC Astana
1:2
Sep 27, 2023 Premier League
FC Astana vs Okzhetpes
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Okzhetpes Compare

Top Goalscorer Mukhammed A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

FC Astana Compare

Top Goalscorer Karimov R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Okzhetpes 36 / 100
FC Astana 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Okzhetpes FC Astana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Astana or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Okzhetpes attacking → ← attacking FC Astana

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Okzhetpes scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

FC Astana let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Okzhetpes went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

FC Astana lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 46
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00