Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Okzhetpes vs Tobol

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Okzhetpes Stadium, Kokshetau
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Vukcevic M.
11'
Ndiaye P.
38'
Ndiaye P.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Okzhetpes and Tobol finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Okzhetpes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Okzhetpes
15%
Draws
36%
Tobol
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Okzhetpes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Okzhetpes carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Okzhetpes a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tobol have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Okzhetpes Clean Sheet 18%
Tobol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Okzhetpes Tobol
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 13
Draws 6 4
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.7 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Premier League
Tobol vs Okzhetpes
3:1
Jun 21, 2026 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs Tobol
2:1
Jul 13, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Okzhetpes
2:1
Apr 5, 2025 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs Tobol
0:1
Jul 23, 2023 Premier League
Tobol vs Okzhetpes
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Okzhetpes Compare

Top Goalscorer Mukhametkhanov Z.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Tobol Compare

Top Goalscorer Vukcevic M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Okzhetpes 36 / 100
Tobol 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Okzhetpes Tobol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Okzhetpes's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Tobol let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Okzhetpes stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Okzhetpes VS Tobol
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Okzhetpes

(Home)
18 Sept
Okzhetpes
3 : 1
Zhenis
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1
Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Okzhetpes
2 : 1
Ordabasy
29 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
2 : 3
Okzhetpes
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2
Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 6

Tobol

(Away)
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
13 Sept
Kairat Almaty
1 : 4
Tobol
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1
Ulytau
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0
Tobol
25 Aug
Tobol
3 : 2
Kaisar Kyzylorda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)