Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Olancho vs Motagua

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas, Juticalpa
Olancho Logo

Olancho

0 - 2
FT
Motagua Logo

Motagua

Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Serrano J.
21' Event
Reyes A.
38'
De Olivera R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Motagua in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Motagua.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Olancho
30%
Draws
33%
Motagua
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Olancho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Motagua have won more games recently than Olancho.
  • Model gives Olancho a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Olancho Clean Sheet 18%
Motagua Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Olancho Motagua
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 15
Draws 10 7
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.34 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.93 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Motagua
0:2
May 10, 2026 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Olancho
1:2
Apr 24, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olancho vs Motagua
0:0
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Olancho
1:1
Nov 21, 2025 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Olancho
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Olancho Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Motagua Compare

Top Goalscorer Reyes A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Olivera R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Olancho 41 / 100
Motagua 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Olancho Motagua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Olancho scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Motagua let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Olancho stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Olancho VS Motagua
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Olancho

(Home)
17 Aug
Olancho
1 : 0
Juticalpa
08 Aug
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 1
Olancho
02 Aug
Estrella
0 : 1
Olancho
15 May
Genesis FC
1 : 1
Olancho
13 May
Olancho
0 : 2
Motagua
Page 1 of 6

Motagua

(Away)
16 Aug
Olimpia
3 : 1
Motagua
13 Aug
Motagua
1 : 1
Cartagines
09 Aug
Motagua
0 : 2
Estrella
07 Aug
Motagua
1 : 0
FAS
02 Aug
Juticalpa
0 : 3
Motagua
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marathon 4 2 1 1 3:3 7
2 Olimpia 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
3 Real Espana 4 1 1 2 6:6 4
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Motagua 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
2 Genesis FC 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
3 Olancho 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)