Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Oliveira do Douro vs Florgrade

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
Couto J.
74' Event
Barros R.
90' Event
Castro H.

AI Match Summary

Florgrade in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Florgrade.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Oliveira do Douro
20%
Draws
57%
Florgrade
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Florgrade

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Florgrade have won more games recently than Oliveira do Douro.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Florgrade taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Oliveira do Douro Clean Sheet 20%
Florgrade Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Oliveira do Douro Florgrade
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 13
Draws 8 12
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.17 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.53 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Oliveira do Douro vs Florgrade
1:2
Sep 17, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Florgrade vs Oliveira do Douro
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Oliveira do Douro Compare

Top Goalscorer Couto J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Florgrade Compare

Top Goalscorer Barros R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castro H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Oliveira do Douro 20 / 100
Florgrade 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Oliveira do Douro Florgrade

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Florgrade Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oliveira do Douro found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Florgrade conceded in 66% of 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Oliveira do Douro stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Florgrade
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Oliveira do Douro

(Home)
07 Apr
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 1
Amarante FC
24 Mar
Rebordosa
2 : 0
Oliveira do Douro
17 Mar
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 2
Paredes
09 Mar
AD Marco 09
2 : 4
Oliveira do Douro
03 Mar
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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Florgrade

(Away)
13 Sept
Florgrade
2 : 0
Sanjoanense
06 Sept
Camacha
1 : 0
Florgrade
30 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
23 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Guarda FC
16 Aug
Uniao Lamas
1 : 1
Florgrade
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 26 17 8 1 40:15 59
2 Sao Joao de Ver 26 12 9 5 27:18 45
3 Gondomar 26 12 7 7 28:20 43
4 AD Marco 09 26 11 8 7 29:22 41
5 Rebordosa 26 8 12 6 27:23 36
6 Paredes 26 9 8 9 31:25 35
7 SC Salgueiros 26 9 8 9 35:26 35
8 Vitoria Guimaraes B 26 8 10 8 35:32 34
9 Beira Mar 26 8 10 8 31:31 34
10 Florgrade 26 8 9 9 24:24 33
11 Oliveira do Douro 26 6 8 12 25:33 26
12 Valadares Gaia FC 26 6 6 14 22:47 24
13 ACDR Lamelas 26 7 3 16 19:39 24
14 Vila Mea 26 6 4 16 27:45 22
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)