Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Oliveira do Douro vs Vila Mea

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Couto J.
71' Event
Monteiro N.
90' Event
Costa R.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024 game between Oliveira do Douro and Vila Mea finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Oliveira do Douro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Oliveira do Douro
20%
Draws
51%
Vila Mea
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vila Mea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Oliveira do Douro's 1.17 goals per match outpaces what Vila Mea have produced (1.13).
  • Win probability leans Vila Mea's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Oliveira do Douro Clean Sheet 20%
Vila Mea Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Oliveira do Douro Vila Mea
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 7
Draws 8 12
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Oliveira do Douro vs Vila Mea
2:1
Oct 8, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Vila Mea vs Oliveira do Douro
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Oliveira do Douro Compare

Top Goalscorer Couto J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Monteiro N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Vila Mea Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Oliveira do Douro 24 / 100
Vila Mea 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Oliveira do Douro Vila Mea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vila Mea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Oliveira do Douro found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Vila Mea conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

Oliveira do Douro went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Vila Mea
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Oliveira do Douro

(Home)
07 Apr
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 1
Amarante FC
24 Mar
Rebordosa
2 : 0
Oliveira do Douro
17 Mar
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 2
Paredes
09 Mar
AD Marco 09
2 : 4
Oliveira do Douro
03 Mar
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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Vila Mea

(Away)
13 Sept
Vila Mea
4 : 0
Vinhais
06 Sept
Rebordosa
1 : 0
Vila Mea
30 Aug
Maia Lidador
1 : 0
Vila Mea
23 Aug
Vila Mea
1 : 1
AD Limianos
16 Aug
Ponte da Barca
1 : 2
Vila Mea
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 26 17 8 1 40:15 59
2 Sao Joao de Ver 26 12 9 5 27:18 45
3 Gondomar 26 12 7 7 28:20 43
4 AD Marco 09 26 11 8 7 29:22 41
5 Rebordosa 26 8 12 6 27:23 36
6 Paredes 26 9 8 9 31:25 35
7 SC Salgueiros 26 9 8 9 35:26 35
8 Vitoria Guimaraes B 26 8 10 8 35:32 34
9 Beira Mar 26 8 10 8 31:31 34
10 Florgrade 26 8 9 9 24:24 33
11 Oliveira do Douro 26 6 8 12 25:33 26
12 Valadares Gaia FC 26 6 6 14 22:47 24
13 ACDR Lamelas 26 7 3 16 19:39 24
14 Vila Mea 26 6 4 16 27:45 22
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)