Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Oltrepo vs Castellanzese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Mavrommatis L.
27' Event
Hrom D.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Oltrepo in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Oltrepo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Oltrepo
15%
Draws
34%
Castellanzese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Oltrepo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Castellanzese haven't matched Oltrepo's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Oltrepo here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Oltrepo Clean Sheet 20%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Oltrepo Castellanzese
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.07 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Castellanzese vs Oltrepo
0:1
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Oltrepo vs Castellanzese
2:0
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Oltrepo
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Oltrepo Compare

Top Goalscorer Mavrommatis L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Castellanzese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Oltrepo 32 / 100
Castellanzese 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Oltrepo Castellanzese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oltrepo's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Castellanzese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Oltrepo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Oltrepo VS Castellanzese
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Oltrepo

(Home)
20 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 1
Tropical Coriano
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
06 Sept
Pro Patria
2 : 1
Oltrepo
03 May
Oltrepo
2 : 1
Brusaporto
26 Apr
Villa Valle
1 : 3
Oltrepo
Page 1 of 6

Castellanzese

(Away)
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)