Sport Picks

Stadium Background

OltrepoVoghera vs Desenzano Calvina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Desenzano Calvina in this Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Desenzano Calvina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
OltrepoVoghera
30%
Draws
58%
Desenzano Calvina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Desenzano Calvina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Desenzano Calvina have won more games recently than OltrepoVoghera.
  • Desenzano Calvina are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 15%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
OltrepoVoghera Clean Sheet 19%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric OltrepoVoghera Desenzano Calvina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 16
Draws 13 10
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 0.63 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.6
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 6, 2019 Serie D - Group D
OltrepoVoghera vs Desenzano Calvina
1:2
Sep 16, 2018 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs OltrepoVoghera
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

OltrepoVoghera 28 / 100
Desenzano Calvina 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
OltrepoVoghera Desenzano Calvina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Desenzano Calvina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

OltrepoVoghera scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Desenzano Calvina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

OltrepoVoghera went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Desenzano Calvina
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.5
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

OltrepoVoghera

(Home)
05 May
USD Classe 1974
1 : 1
OltrepoVoghera
28 Apr
OltrepoVoghera
0 : 2
Fiorenzuola
18 Apr
Crema
1 : 0
OltrepoVoghera
14 Apr
OltrepoVoghera
0 : 2
Ciliverghe Mazzano
07 Apr
Fanfulla
2 : 1
OltrepoVoghera
Page 1 of 6

Desenzano Calvina

(Away)
26 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0
Juventus U23
21 Sept
Treviso
0 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
17 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 3
Lecco
13 Sept
Arzignano
1 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
06 Sept
Union Brescia
1 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pergolettese 34 22 7 5 62:32 73
2 Modena 34 21 10 3 60:27 73
3 Reggiana 34 19 9 6 57:28 66
4 Fanfulla 34 16 9 9 58:52 57
5 Fiorenzuola 34 16 8 10 52:31 56
6 Crema 34 12 13 9 52:50 49
7 Adrense 34 12 11 11 45:45 47
8 Vigor Carpaneto 34 11 14 9 42:35 47
9 Axys Zola 34 11 8 15 40:45 41
10 Ciliverghe Mazzano 34 11 8 15 38:48 41
11 Lentigione 34 8 15 11 34:36 39
12 Desenzano Calvina 34 8 15 11 40:51 39
13 Pavia 34 9 9 16 32:46 36
14 Mezzolara 34 7 14 13 39:50 35
15 Sasso Marconi 34 8 10 16 31:50 34
16 San Marino Calcio 34 5 16 13 24:32 31
17 USD Classe 1974 34 6 12 16 25:51 30
18 OltrepoVoghera 34 3 14 17 22:44 23
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 (Additional match)
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 (Additional match)
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 (Play Offs)