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Operario AC vs Dourados

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Firmino
36' Event
Santos O.
90' Event
Melo R.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2023 game between Operario AC and Dourados finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dourados.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Operario AC
30%
Draws
58%
Dourados
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Dourados

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Dourados carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Dourados taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Operario AC Clean Sheet 18%
Dourados Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Operario AC Dourados
Matches Played 26 32
Wins 1 13
Draws 8 11
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 0.85 1.44
Goals Conceded 2.42 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario AC vs Dourados
1:2
Feb 18, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Operario AC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Operario AC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Dourados Compare

Top Goalscorer Firmino
1 Goals
Assists Leader Santos O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Operario AC 28 / 100
Dourados 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Operario AC Dourados

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dourados Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dourados has conceded goals in 66% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Attacking prowess: Operario AC scored in 58% of their last 26 outings.

Solid form: Operario AC remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Dourados
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Operario AC

(Home)
10 Nov
Operario AC
0 : 1
Naviraiense
03 Nov
Aguia Negra
1 : 0
Operario AC
27 Oct
Comercial MS
4 : 2
Operario AC
19 Oct
Operario AC
0 : 2
7 de Setembro
05 Oct
Naviraiense
1 : 1
Operario AC
Page 1 of 6

Dourados

(Away)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Costa Rica 8 6 1 1 15:6 19
2 Operario MS 8 5 0 3 13:8 15
3 Chapadao 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
4 Coxim 8 2 2 4 4:11 8
5 Comercial MS 8 0 2 6 4:12 2
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dourados 8 6 1 1 11:5 19
2 Ivinhema 8 3 2 3 14:9 11
3 Novoperario 8 3 2 3 11:10 11
4 Aquidauanense 8 3 1 4 9:15 10
5 Operario AC 8 1 2 5 9:15 5
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)