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Operario MS vs Corumbaense

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
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Match Events

45' Event
Romario
48' Event
Douglao
64' Event
Braga Batista C.

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2025 game between Operario MS and Corumbaense finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Operario MS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Operario MS
15%
Draws
46%
Corumbaense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Corumbaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Operario MS come out ahead of Corumbaense on wins alone.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Corumbaense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Operario MS have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Operario MS Clean Sheet 18%
Corumbaense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Operario MS Corumbaense
Matches Played 44 30
Wins 20 9
Draws 14 9
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.39 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Corumbaense
2:1
Mar 15, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Operario MS
1:2
Jan 24, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Operario MS
0:0
Feb 6, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Corumbaense
2:1
Mar 5, 2020 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Corumbaense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Operario MS Compare

Top Goalscorer Douglao
1 Goals
Assists Leader Braga Batista C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Corumbaense Compare

Top Goalscorer Romario
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Operario MS 28 / 100
Corumbaense 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Operario MS Corumbaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corumbaense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Operario MS scored in 77% of their last 44 games.

Corumbaense let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Operario MS went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Operario MS VS Corumbaense
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Operario MS

(Home)
14 Jun
Betim FC
2 : 1
Operario MS
31 May
Operario MS
2 : 0
CRAC
23 May
ABECAT Ouvidorense
2 : 0
Operario MS
16 May
Operario MS
2 : 0
Ivinhema
09 May
Operario MS
1 : 2
Uberlandia
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Corumbaense

(Away)
18 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Corumbaense
15 Mar
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Operario MS
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)