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Orange County SC vs Louisville City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Championship Championship Soccer Stadium, Irvine, CA
Orange County SC Logo

Orange County SC

2 - 3
FT
Louisville City Logo

Louisville City

Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Serrano R.
Assist: Showunmi T.
44'
Davila E.
45'
Duncan Z.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The USL Championship game between Orange County SC and Louisville City finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Louisville City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Orange County SC
20%
Draws
57%
Louisville City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Louisville City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Louisville City come out ahead of Orange County SC on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Louisville City taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Louisville City have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Orange County SC Clean Sheet 10%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orange County SC Louisville City
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.34 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Louisville City
2:3
Oct 19, 2025 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Louisville City
0:0
May 11, 2024 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Orange County SC
3:0
Mar 12, 2023 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Louisville City
1:3
Jun 19, 2022 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Orange County SC
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orange County SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Bazini Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Louisville City Compare

Top Goalscorer Serrano R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Donovan C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orange County SC 10 / 100
Louisville City 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orange County SC Louisville City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Louisville City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Orange County SC's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Louisville City has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Orange County SC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Orange County SC VS Louisville City
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Orange County SC

(Home)
04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2
Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0
Orange County SC
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2
Las Vegas Lights
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1
Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 6

Louisville City

(Away)
10 Oct
Charleston
0 : 2
Louisville City
04 Oct
Hartford Athletic
0 : 1
Louisville City
25 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2
Louisville City
19 Sept
Louisville City
2 : 1
Loudoun United
12 Sept
Louisville City
1 : 2
El Paso Locomotive
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tampa Bay 28 16 7 5 49:26 55
2 Detroit City 28 14 8 6 34:20 50
3 Charleston 27 14 4 9 52:33 46
4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 28 12 5 11 30:28 41
5 Louisville City 27 11 7 9 45:42 40
6 Hartford Athletic 27 9 12 6 30:28 39
7 Rhode Island 27 11 5 11 39:30 38
8 Miami FC 29 9 9 11 38:47 36
9 Indy Eleven 28 9 7 12 34:36 34
10 Loudoun United 27 5 12 10 34:44 27
11 Birmingham Legion 26 4 11 11 36:43 23
12 Brooklyn FC 27 4 6 17 27:55 18
13 Sporting Jax 27 3 5 19 32:73 14
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Paso Locomotive 28 15 5 8 48:36 50
2 New Mexico 28 14 7 7 44:33 49
3 Sacramento Republic 28 11 12 5 38:26 45
4 Lexington 28 13 5 10 49:33 44
5 FC Tulsa 28 11 10 7 32:25 43
6 Colorado Springs 28 11 8 9 41:38 41
7 Orange County SC 28 10 9 9 37:44 39
8 San Antonio FC 28 9 12 7 29:29 39
9 Las Vegas Lights 28 10 6 12 37:41 36
10 Phoenix Rising 28 9 9 10 39:42 36
11 Oakland Roots 28 8 11 9 33:35 35
12 Monterey Bay 28 5 6 17 30:50 21
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)