Sport Picks
Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Championship Soccer Stadium, Irvine, CA 
Match Events
16'
16'
Hilton L.
24'
24'
Myers M.
(Penalty)
37'
37'
Doghman R.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Orange County SC and Tampa Bay finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tampa Bay.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tampa Bay
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Tampa Bay carry the better recent record into this one.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on Tampa Bay taking it.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Orange County SC Clean Sheet 11%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Orange County SC | Tampa Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 15 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.28 | 1.71 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.76 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 9, 2026 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay
0:3
Jul 13, 2024 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Orange County SC
2:0
Mar 19, 2023 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay
1:1
Aug 27, 2022 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Orange County SC
3:1
Nov 29, 2021 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Orange County SC
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Orange County SC Compare
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Tampa Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Micaletto M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Henderlong K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Orange County SC 10 / 100
Tampa Bay 76 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Orange County SC Tampa Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tampa Bay Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Orange County SC scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Tampa Bay has conceded goals in 50% of their last 28 outings.
Solid form: Orange County SC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Orange County SC VS Tampa Bay
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Orange County SC
(Home) 04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
23 Aug
Orange County SC
1 : 5 FC Tulsa
Page 1 of 3
Tampa Bay
(Away) 03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1 Tampa Bay
05 Sept
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 Brooklyn FC
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1 Tampa Bay
29 Aug
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
22 Aug
Detroit City
1 : 0 Tampa Bay
09 Aug
Orange County SC
0 : 3 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49:33 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32:25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
