Sport Picks
Orense vs Independiente del Valle
Ecuador
Liga Pro Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala 
Match Events
27'
27'
Guagua D.
Assist: Viacava J.
43'
43'
Briones R.
43'
43'
Jaramilo R.
AI Match Summary
Independiente del Valle in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Independiente del Valle.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
15%
65%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Independiente del Valle
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Independiente del Valle have won more games recently than Orense.
- 65% — that's where the model lands on Independiente del Valle taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Independiente del Valle here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Orense Clean Sheet 10%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Orense | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 35 |
| Wins | 9 | 28 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 16 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.2 | 2.26 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 26, 2026 Liga Pro
Orense vs Independiente del Valle
2:3
Apr 4, 2026 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Orense
2:0
Nov 23, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Orense
0:0
Oct 17, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Independiente del Valle
1:2
Aug 17, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Orense
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Orense Compare
Top Goalscorer Parrales M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Vasquez S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Independiente del Valle Compare
Top Goalscorer Guagua D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Quintana H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Orense 10 / 100
Independiente del Valle 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Orense Independiente del Valle
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Independiente del Valle Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Orense found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Independiente del Valle's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 35 matches.
Orense went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Orense VS Independiente del Valle
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Orense
(Home) 21 Sept
Manta
2 : 1 Orense
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1 Orense
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3 Guayaquil City
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0 Orense
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2 Macara
Page 1 of 6
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3 Guayaquil City
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2 Macara
16 Aug
Orense
2 : 0 Dep. Cuenca
26 Jul
Orense
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
23 Jul
Orense
2 : 1 Aucas
Page 1 of 3
Independiente del Valle
(Away) 25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2 Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1 Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2 Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
Page 1 of 7
25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2 Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1 Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
03 Sept
Barcelona SC
2 : 1 Independiente del Valle
22 Aug
Leones del Norte
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Dep. Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico U. | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | 21 |
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)
