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Orense vs Libertad

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Zambrano I.
36'
Caicedo B.
45' Event
Vasquez S.
Assist: Velasco P.

AI Match Summary

Orense in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Orense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Orense
15%
Draws
59%
Libertad
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Libertad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Orense haven't matched Libertad's recent run of results.
  • Libertad are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Orense Clean Sheet 14%
Libertad Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orense Libertad
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 5 7
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.21 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Orense
3:0
Apr 12, 2026 Liga Pro
Orense vs Libertad
2:1
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Libertad
3:2
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Orense
2:0
Jul 13, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Libertad
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orense Compare

Top Goalscorer Vasquez S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Caicedo B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Caicedo B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orense 27 / 100
Libertad 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orense Libertad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orense's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Libertad's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Orense remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Orense VS Libertad
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Orense

(Home)
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
23 Aug
Barcelona SC
3 : 0
Orense
Page 1 of 6

Libertad

(Away)
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
25 Aug
Libertad
1 : 0
Macara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)