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Orihuela vs Navalcarnero

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Monterde J.
70' Event
Felipe A.
75' Event
Solano R.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026 game between Orihuela and Navalcarnero finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Orihuela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Orihuela
40%
Draws
29%
Navalcarnero
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Navalcarnero's 1.13 goals per match outpaces what Orihuela have produced (0.88).
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Orihuela Clean Sheet 17%
Navalcarnero Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orihuela Navalcarnero
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Orihuela vs Navalcarnero
4:0
Oct 12, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Navalcarnero vs Orihuela
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orihuela Compare

Top Goalscorer Monterde J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Felipe A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Navalcarnero Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orihuela 31 / 100
Navalcarnero 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orihuela Navalcarnero

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orihuela scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Navalcarnero let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Orihuela remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Orihuela VS Navalcarnero
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Orihuela

(Home)
03 May
Orihuela
2 : 1
Getafe B
26 Apr
Las Palmas B
2 : 1
Orihuela
18 Apr
Orihuela
0 : 2
San Sebastian Reyes
11 Apr
Colonia Moscardo
1 : 0
Orihuela
05 Apr
Orihuela
2 : 2
Conquense
Page 1 of 6

Navalcarnero

(Away)
03 May
Navalcarnero
3 : 1
CF Fuenlabrada
26 Apr
Colonia Moscardo
0 : 0
Navalcarnero
19 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 0
Conquense
12 Apr
CD Coria
2 : 1
Navalcarnero
05 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 3
Rayo Majadahonda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rayo Majadahonda342010452:2370
2San Sebastian Reyes34217651:2770
3Conquense341612642:3060
4Getafe B34169955:3557
5CD Coria34169950:3857
6RSD Alcala341491142:3951
7Tenerife B341551457:5350
8Orihuela3412101245:4346
9CF Intercity3411101342:4543
10Navalcarnero3411101340:4243
11Las Palmas B341191442:4542
12Ilicitano3410111351:5641
13Real Madrid C341171642:4540
14Quintanar del Rey341161736:4339
15CF Fuenlabrada349101535:4437
16Colonia Moscardo34971837:5734
17Socuellamos347101734:5531
18Rayo Vallecano B34932230:6330
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)