Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Orsomarso vs Cucuta

Colombia Colombia

Copa Colombia Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Orsomarso play Cucuta in the Copa Colombia. It looks like a close match. Recently, Orsomarso averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Cucuta averaged 1.16 goals scored and 1.42 conceded. In past meetings, Orsomarso won 1, Cucuta won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Orsomarso and 1.13 for Cucuta. This points to a Cucuta double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Orsomarso
35%
Draws
35%
Cucuta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cucuta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Orsomarso picked up more points recently compared to Cucuta.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Orsomarso Clean Sheet 21%
Cucuta Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orsomarso Cucuta
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 8
Draws 11 11
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.8 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Copa Colombia
Orsomarso vs Cucuta
1:1
Oct 25, 2025 Primera B
Cucuta vs Orsomarso
1:0
May 18, 2025 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Cucuta
2:2
Aug 17, 2024 Primera B
Cucuta vs Orsomarso
0:1
Feb 24, 2024 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Cucuta
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orsomarso Compare

Top Goalscorer Barreiro J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Cucuta Compare

Top Goalscorer Agudelo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orsomarso 31 / 100
Cucuta 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orsomarso Cucuta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Cucuta or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Orsomarso attacking → ← attacking Cucuta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orsomarso scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Cucuta let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Orsomarso went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Cucuta lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 35
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Dep. Cali440010:212
2Alianza42116:37
3Boca Juniors de Cali42118:87
4Bucaramanga41038:73
5Real Santander40041:130
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Millonarios431014:510
2Llaneros43017:29
3Chico41216:35
4Patriotas40224:72
5Atletico F.C.40132:161
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ind. Medellin42205:38
2Fortaleza C.E.I.F.41215:35
3Leones41214:55
4Cucuta40312:33
5Orsomarso40313:53
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Dep. Pereira42204:28
2Real Cundinamarca42116:47
3Aguilas Doradas41307:46
4Jaguares de Cordoba41124:34
5Ind. Yumbo40132:101