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Orvietana vs Figline

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Congiu A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 game between Orvietana and Figline finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Orvietana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Orvietana
30%
Draws
23%
Figline
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Orvietana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Figline haven't matched Orvietana's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Orvietana taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Orvietana Clean Sheet 20%
Figline Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orvietana Figline
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 11 9
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 0.94 0.77
Goals Conceded 0.94 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs Figline
1:0
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Figline vs Orvietana
2:0
Feb 4, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Figline vs Orvietana
1:1
Oct 8, 2023 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs Figline
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orvietana Compare

Top Goalscorer Congiu A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Figline Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orvietana 40 / 100
Figline 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orvietana Figline

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Orvietana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Figline conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Orvietana went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Orvietana found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (34 games).

Scoring Trends

Orvietana VS Figline
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Orvietana

(Home)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Terranuova Traiana
0 : 0
Orvietana
26 Apr
Orvietana
3 : 2
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
19 Apr
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 1
Orvietana
12 Apr
Orvietana
0 : 1
Scandicci
Page 1 of 7

Figline

(Away)
19 Aug
Montevarchi
0 : 0
Figline
11 May
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 0
Figline
04 May
Figline
4 : 1
Livorno
27 Apr
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 1
Figline
17 Apr
Figline
0 : 1
Poggibonsi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Livorno 34 21 9 4 74:44 72
2 Fulgens Foligno 34 17 9 8 61:44 60
3 Seravezza Pozzi 34 16 11 7 53:39 59
4 Ghiviborgo 34 17 4 13 65:57 55
5 Orvietana 34 15 8 11 44:41 53
6 Siena 34 14 10 10 35:32 52
7 Grosseto 34 13 11 10 39:34 50
8 Ostiamare 34 12 9 13 49:53 45
9 Poggibonsi 34 12 7 15 32:36 43
10 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 11 10 13 26:26 43
11 Montevarchi 34 9 14 11 36:39 41
12 Flaminia 34 10 10 14 42:43 40
13 Follonica Gavorrano 34 10 10 14 40:45 40
14 Terranuova Traiana 34 8 15 11 34:47 39
15 Figline 34 9 11 14 29:33 38
16 Sporting Trestina 34 9 11 14 35:45 38
17 Sangiovannese 34 9 9 16 30:38 36
18 Fezzanese 34 6 8 20 35:63 26
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Out)