Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Orvietana vs Prato

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Caon G.
85' Event
Cela I.
90' Event
Santarelli A.

AI Match Summary

Prato in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Prato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Orvietana
15%
Draws
46%
Prato
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Prato have won more games recently than Orvietana.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Orvietana Clean Sheet 19%
Prato Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orvietana Prato
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 9 19
Draws 11 5
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 0.75 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs Prato
1:2
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Orvietana
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orvietana Compare

Top Goalscorer Caon G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Prato Compare

Top Goalscorer Cela I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Santarelli A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orvietana 36 / 100
Prato 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orvietana Prato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PRA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Orvietana went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Orvietana found the back of the net in 58% of recent matches (31 games).

Prato has conceded goals in 58% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Orvietana VS Prato
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Orvietana

(Home)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Terranuova Traiana
0 : 0
Orvietana
26 Apr
Orvietana
3 : 2
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
19 Apr
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 1
Orvietana
12 Apr
Orvietana
0 : 1
Scandicci
Page 1 of 7

Prato

(Away)
17 May
Prato
1 : 2
Seravezza Pozzi
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
03 May
Prato
1 : 0
Montevarchi
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2
Prato
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0
Grosseto
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)