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Orvietana vs Prato - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Caon G.
85' Event
Cela Y.
90' Event
Santarelli A.

AI Match Summary

Prato in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Prato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Orvietana
30%
Draws
37%
Prato
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Prato have won more games recently than Orvietana.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 35%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Orvietana Clean Sheet 23%
Prato Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orvietana Prato
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 8 18
Draws 11 6
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 0.93 1.54
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs Prato
1:2
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Orvietana
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orvietana Compare

Top Goalscorer Caon G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Prato Compare

Top Goalscorer Cela Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Santarelli A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orvietana 37 / 100
Prato 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orvietana Prato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Prato Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Orvietana went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Orvietana found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Prato has conceded goals in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Orvietana VS Prato
1 Goals Scored 1.38
0.6 Goals Conceded 0.38
20% Over 1.5 50%
20% Over 2.5 25%
20% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Orvietana

(Home)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Terranuova Traiana
0 : 0
Orvietana
26 Apr
Orvietana
3 : 2
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
19 Apr
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 1
Orvietana
12 Apr
Orvietana
0 : 1
Scandicci
Page 1 of 6

Prato

(Away)
07 Oct
Terranuova Traiana
0 : 3
Prato
03 Oct
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 1
Prato
27 Sept
Prato
2 : 1
Ghiviborgo
20 Sept
Sasso Marconi
0 : 1
Prato
16 Sept
Prato
1 : 1
Grassina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)